Fantasy Draft Master

We have come to the point in the fantasy season where flukes and coincidences are becoming trends.  You can now start to make pretty good assumptions about who will have success running the football, who is going to get the most looks in the passing game and which defenses you should be hesitant to start your marginal running backs or wide receivers against.  This is also the time of the season where research becomes the key to success.   

In the first couple of weeks, everyone plays their studs and hopes for the best.  The problem is that the first couple of weeks of the season is the time when surprises are the norm and dependability is the exception.  Those weeks are behind us and we can start to make assumptions that we were afraid to make in weeks one and two.  For example, we can now safely assume that Cedric Benson has finally become the running back that everyone thought he would be coming out of U of T years ago.  With that we can also safely assume that he is a pivotal part of the Bengals resurgent offence built around a power running game and the arm of “Comeback Player of the Year” Carson Palmer.  We can safely assume that whomever the Colts choose to use in the WR2 spot in the post Marvin Harrison era is going to put up some numbers.  It was going to be Anthony Gonzalez but he got hurt, and now it is Pierre Garcon.  The truth is it could be me or Raven Simone, it does not matter, Peyton Manning is going to be Peyton Manning and everyone around him is going to flourish.  We are pretty sure that contrary to all of the preseason Ray Rice talk, Willis McGahee is going to be the go to back in a very powerful Baltimore offense (I know it feels weird saying powerful Baltimore offense). 

So what does all this mean?  It means that it is time to go to work.  This is the part of the season where championships are won and lost.  If you have spent any time playing fantasy football, you know that what I am about to say is absolute fact.  There is always at least one guy in your league who seems to make “lucky” waiver pickups or who seems to always “luckily” get an irrelevant player in a trade who comes on strong down the stretch.  If you are convinced that this guy or lady just has a large collection of horseshoes strategically placed in an uncomfortable area, there is no mystery as to why you never make it past the first round on the playoffs.  Now, every season there is usually someone who does happen to be truly lucky enough to have his first five draft picks perform as well as they should and stay healthy.  This guy puts his team on autopilot and sits back while everyone else hates him, for the other 11 people in the league, it is all about work.    

One of the great things about weeks 4 through 6 in the fantasy season is buy low shopping.  Right now there are several players who projected highly in everyone’s pre-draft cheat sheets, but so far have not done much to earn their paychecks.  Many of these are going to end up being lost causes due to bad team situations and flukes that appear to be trends.  Clinton Portis is a perfect example of a player that is going to ruin someone’s fantasy season.  Portis was ranked highly due to past performance, but he seems to have lost his burst and he is playing on a team that is going to lose a lot of games so their offense is going to be throwing…all the time.  This is not good if you are the owner of the “Cheeky Monkeys”.  (if you do not get this reference, email me, I will explain it. If you do get this reference, email me, we should hang out and go for beers).

Some of these underachievers however, are going to be the key to success in your run for the championship.  The first step is to look at reasons for the underachievement, if it is a short term problem that is going to work itself out, the player will probably bounce back.  Kerry Collins, although not a great fantasy QB, is someone who is probably still available in most leagues and might be a good back up plan in case your Drew Brees or Donovan McNabb is on the IR during your playoffs.  Collins has faced both the Steelers (with Polomalu) and the Jets surprising good defense in the first two weeks so his numbers are depressed.  The Titans will end the season however, facing the Rams, Bills, Texans, Cardinals and Dolphins.  Another great “buy low” grab if you have some players in your league with itchy trigger fingers is Matt Forte.  Forte was projected by many as a top three overall pick but has had a rough start due to some chemistry issues with Jay Cutler, but he is a legit stud on a team with very few weapons.  Cutler seems to have settled in and Matt Forte who is a great pass catcher out of the back field will be the beneficiary of Cutler’s increased confidence and comfort in the offense.  In addition, Forte still gets to play the Rams, the Lions (at least once), the Cardinal and the Browns.   

I am not suggesting that you should be constantly shuffling your team, there is no need to fix what is not broken, but if you see a weakness at this point and your can grab a diamond in the rough, now is the time to do it.   Remember, the key is to think long term.  Look at the schedules in weeks 12 through 16 and figure out which teams have the best match ups and who might be sitting behind a known injury concern.  There is no magic in fantasy football, the more active and informed you are the more successful you will be. 

This Week’s Strong Plays: 

Steve Slaton, Houston-  The Texans are facing the floundering Oakland Raiders.  The Raiders are in complete disarray and have not been able to stop anyone on the ground.  Add to that the fact that Matt Schaub has been lights out the last couple of weeks so the Raiders will have to play lots of pass defense formations.  Slaton should have plenty of room to move between the tackles 

Justin Gage, Tennessee- The Jags have one of the worst pass defenses in the league and they have been torched by every quarterback who has faced them.  Both Manning and Schaub went for over 300yds and Warner set a record against them with 24 completions in 26 attempts.  Gage has been Collins most frequent target this season especially in the red zone.  I would say that Collins is a strong play this week as well, but he is a free agent in most leagues. 

Eli Manning, New York Giants- Manning has been mister consistent this season. This week matched up against a Chiefs defense who has been questionable against the pass all year anyway but will have even more trouble this week since their suspect defense will have their hands full with the Giants 2 headed running back monster.