Fantasy Draft Master

At this point in the season it has become very clear who will be playing for the hardware and who in your league will be making excuses.  If you are one of the few that have a legitimate shot at the big dance, good work.  if you are one of the also rans sitting in the corner sobbing and licking your wounds…better luck next year, try not drafting a defense with your third pick! 

In most leagues, the championship game is played on week 16.  This is to prevent the elite fantasy teams from being left with no one to play in the championship game while the Colts sit Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne and every other starter on their team to get ready for the NFL playoffs.  This is the only week you should be thinking about right now.  The fantasy playoffs are going to play out the way they play out, but the worst possible scenario is to have the planets align allowing you to get to the finals only to score 45 points because your marquis players have either been nicked up through out the year and are missing time, or being rested just to be safe. 

Here is the plan that I have put together using lessons learned from my own beats!  First step is to look at the schedule.  Look for good teams who are playing opponents with weakest defenses in the league.  At this point in the season you can be pretty safe in assuming that if a team is ranked 28th against the pass, they are horrible and will most likely give up big yardage to both QBs and WRs in week 16.  No one is 28th against the pass in week 13 by accident, it means they are terrible.  Next step is to look for the secondary receivers on these good teams playing bad defenses. (this applies to bad run defenses and secondary RBs on good teams as well, but good back up RBs are harder to come by and they are a bigger gamble because they may not see the field if the starter is healthy).  A perfect example of the type of player you should be looking for is Malcolm Floyd of the San Diego Chargers.   Floyd is available in more than 90% of ESPN fantasy leagues right now (this is critical, it is tough to pick up a player who is not available), he plays for a good team that loves to pass the football and most importantly, the Chargers are playing the Tennessee Titans who happen to be the 31st ranked defense against the pass!  The only way this could be better is if Vincent Jackson were available, which he is not!

So now you know who to look for, who do you get rid of?  This one is easy.  The first move is look at your kicker situation.  If you are still carrying more than one kicker, smack yourself and then drop one.  Next is defense.  Carrying a second defense is not as ridiculous as carrying a second kicker but it is unnecessary.  By now you know which defense averages the most points per game, just commit to one and be done.  If you have been following our advice here or on Fantasy Draft Master and you do not have an extra kicker or defense, good for you, but you still need to drop someone.  Your last option is to release your back up quarterback.  This is a risky move since it leaves you naked in the event of a major injury to your stud QB in week 15 but, if your QB goes down in week 15 your back up QB is probably not going to save your season anymore than someone you can snag off the waiver wire.  On the flip side however, having Laverneus Coles go off for 110 and a TD against the 28th ranked Chiefs defense might be the difference between being the champion and being the first loser.

So, to recap:

1. Look for good teams playing weak defenses on week 16
2. Grab as many play makers as you can get from those good teams
3. Drop all non-critical players on your team to make as much room as possible.  First, back up kickers, then defensive teams and last, back up QBs

Remember the reason I know this is not because I am some kind of fantasy football savant, it is because I have made every mistake in the book!

See you on the field!