Fantasy Draft Master

As with every fantasy football season there are going to be players that appear out of nowhere and explode (Miles Austin) and there will be players who everyone expected big things from who disappear (Matt Forte). In many of these cases, you can’t anticipate the change, you simply have to keep your ear to the ground and react quickly when you see someone blow up or blow apart. This is not always the case however. In many instances you can see the writing on the wall if you pay attention. Some indicators are huge red flags, others are a little more subtle. Being aware of these subtle changes and moving these players up or down on your prospect list can be the difference between a good draft and a draft day that is an unmitigated disaster. In our never ending effort to put our followers in the best position to win your fantasy football leagues, here is a list of players that have produced in the past but you might want to hesitate on a little bit on draft day. Some are obvious and some…not so much. Since we know that some of our clients pay for our service so that they don’t have to pay attention in the off season (or the season for that matter) we are going to list even the ones that you would have to be a potato to have missed. (the song titles for titles was something that just happened…don’t read too much into it)

You Outta Know ( Alanis Morrisette)

Kurt Warner, Arizona Cardinals – He has been a fantasy stud for most of the time he has been on the field as a starter, but he RETIRED!!! This is not a move him down your list situation, this is a move him off your list situation!

Terrell Owens, Free Agent – Owens has been a guy you could count on for consistent fantasy football production for many years. Last season however, he was invisible in Buffalo with the exception of a couple of weeks and this year he cannot find a gig. T.O. is going to be 37 this year and his skills has diminished noticeably. Look for him to be signed at some point in the preseason by a team that loses a wide out to a season ending injury. Don’t look for him to be much help in the fantasy department at any point in whatever is left of his career. (if Vincent Jackson holds out until week 11 like he is threatening to he might land in San Diego)

Ben Rothlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers – Ben has a terrible off season on a personal level, which has resulted in a 6 week suspension handed down by “General Goodell”. Although Ben will be a very good fantasy quarterback for years to come, you will not be able to count on him this season until week seven. If you can get him in the spot you would usually draft you back up quarterback, he is a steal, but don’t reach for him early. Even when he does get back on the field, the Steelers offense is not what it was.

Don’t Let Me Be the Last to Know (Brittney Spears…sorry the song title fit)

Steve Slaton, Houston Texans – Slaton was one of the pre draft darlings last year. I saw some lists that had him ranked as high as 10th overall. Slaton rewarded all of his promoters with 437 yards, 4 touchdowns and 7 fumbles. ( a 75% drop off in yards and a 105% increase in balls on the turf) He also lost his job to Ryan Moats. Heading into this season, the coaching staff in Houston has already said that Adrian Foster is the starter and the Texans drafted a running back early. I am not a genius but all this added up equal a short career as fantasy stud for Steve Slaton.

Clinton Portis/ Willie Parker/ Larry Johnson Washington Redskins – Since what I am going to say applies to all of these former fantasy studs, you can apply it to which ever one you are thinking about drafting. Fantasy running back x, has a lot of mileage on him and although he was once a player you could anchor your fantasy team around, those days are over. He (Clinton Portis/ Willie Parker/ Larry Johnson) has lost much of his ability to hit the holes with gusto and break tackles in the open field. He (Clinton Portis/ Willie Parker/ Larry Johnson) is not nearly as fast as he once was and he is now playing in a Mike Shanahan offense which is loyal to no running back under any circumstances. I am avoiding him completely.

Wes Welker New England Patriots – Although Welker is still young and playing in a high powered offense, he is coming off a major knee injury. Modern medicine has allowed many quarterbacks to come back from this type of injury and be the same as they were before but the same cannot be said for wide receivers who depend on speed, quickness and the ability to take big hits across the middle. All indications point to Welker making a full recovery but that doesn’t mean that he will be the player he once was. If Welker was the type of player who depended on his size and his hands to make his living I would feel for more confident, but he depends on his legs and speed. If you can get him late he is worth a flyer, but again, don’t reach for him.

What You Don’t Know (Expose)

Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts – Addai came on so strong early in his career that he ousted Edgerrin James from the team entirely. He became a sure top ten fantasy running back for several years because he played for a high powered offense, he caught balls out of the back field and he rarely put the ball on the ground. In the last couple of seasons however, Addai has had some serious durability problems and it has forced the Colts to look for the next RB1. Last year Donald Brown looked good in his replacement of Addai during injury time and will undoubtedly take even more of Addai’s livelihood this season.

Steve Smith Carolina Panthers (calm down Pretzel, I am not saying he isn’t good)– Steve Smith has been the little engine that could on an offense that could not for a couple of seasons now. Unfortunately for Steve, the uncertainty at quarterback and the emergence of the power running game in Carolina has eaten up most of his prime years. Although there are many fantasy wide receivers who go on producing well into their mid 30’s most of them are not burners who have built a career playing like they 4 inches taller and 25 pounds heavier than they actually are. The Quarterback uncertainties remain in Carolina and although Smith is still likely to out produce every non running back on the Carolina roster from a fantasy football perspective, he is no longer the top 5 guy he once was, he may not be a top ten guy. In fact, if Carolina’s passing attack is as sad as it was last year, he may not even be the best Steve Smith.