Will Kyle Orton Outproduce Jay Cutler?

Eric Karabell said yesterday that he believed Kyle Orton would be a better Fantasy Quarterback than Jay Cutler this year. On the surface this sounds crazy but is it really? Let’s look at the numbers.

Last season Orton threw for over 2700 yards with 16 tds and 12 ints. All of this with his leading receiver being his running back Matt Forte and his best deep threat being a converted cornerback who was not really sure of his position yet. He did have a play making TE in Greg Olsen, but that is not much.

Jay Cutler had a much better season last year with 4200 yards 24 tds and 16 ints. On the surface there is no contest. But, you must remember, Denver is LOADED with weapons. Brandon Marshall, one of the top WR in the league (even if he can’t keep his mouth shut). The emergent Eddie Royal who torched defenses in his rookie season for almost 1000 yds. Play Making TE Tony Scheffler and a multitude of productive running backs.

This season both of those scenarios are exactly the same except the QBs are now switched, so it is Orton with all the weapons and Cutler with no one to throw to. It is arguable that all the weapons in the world will not turn Kyle Orton into Jay Cutler, but I think the problem will be deeper than that. Last year Cutler had the benefit of knowing the offense since it was his second year in the same system. This year they will both have to learn new offenses. More importantly though, Cutler also had the Mike Shanahan, tried and true offense to work with, old school “use the run to open up the passing game”. This year Orton gets to play in a new system with an unproven head coach who has spent his first few months in Denver alienating their franchise QB to the point that he throws a child’s hissy and stomps out of town with his bat and ball and failing to connect with his most important weapon in Brandon Marshall.

Cutler is headed to a system that is built around the run and solid defense. This should give him time to get comfortable with his new surroundings. He is a quick study so he will be up to speed quickly, even if he has no one to throw to. Cutler’s skill set will allow Devin Hester to learn the position and help the bears make big plays.

Although on the surface, it appears that Kyle Orton should improve statistically and Jay Cutler should diminish, this situation is more than just the sum of its parts. There is a chance that Kyle Orton will step up and surprise everyone by showing the flashes of brilliance that he showed in the first half of last year, it is not likely. Jay Cutler will make the Bears an immediate contender for the NFC North title and Denver will continue to show the disarray that has possessed them throughout the preseason.

Sorry Eric, you are nuts!