Chris Johnson is Not the #1 Pick for 2010 Fantasy Football
When we look back at the 2009 fantasy football season one thing stands out above the rest, Chris Johnson had over 2500 total yards and 16 total TD. This automatically makes him the number one pick in 2010 right? I am here to tell you no. He should be your number 3 pick. If we take a look at week 2 of the 2009 season, Chris Johnson became the first player in NFL history to record a 90-plus yard rushing touchdown, 50-plus yard rushing touchdown, and 60-plus yard receiving touchdown in one game. Seven of Johnson’s touchdowns were for 50+yards and 10 were for 25+ yards. If you are sitting there first overall and expecting these types of results again you will be very disappointed with your pick.
But let’s not just focus on last year’s numbers for Johnson, let’s look at what history has taught us. Five other players have rushed for over 2000 yards in a season and their follow up year was nowhere close to as spectacular. OJ Simpson had 1,125 yards and 3 touchdowns, Eric Dickerson went for 1,234 and 12 touchdowns and Barry Sanders (the best yardage season following 2k) almost cracked 1500 at 1491 yards and only 4 touchdowns. The other 2 players to run for 2000 yards in a season failed to play the entire next season with Jamal Lewis playing 12 games for 1,006 yards and 7 touchdowns, and Terrell Davis only able to muster 4 games for 211 yards and 2 touchdowns. If we combine these stats for the best possible season you are still looking at losing 500+ yards and at least 2 touchdowns, meaning your fantasy team loses 70+ points on the season from this one player, not a good way to start your draft.
Let’s also look at your 2 better options for drafting first over all. Adrian Peterson was considered by most to have a down year last year with 1,383 yards and 18 touchdowns. 18 Touchdowns and a down year!?!? With Chester Taylor gone, AD will get more of the carries, all the goal line carries and plays behind one of the better lines in football. Whether Favre is back or not look for Minnesota to rely more and more on the running game and for Peterson to produce big for your team. Maurice Jones-Drew has a similar situation in Jacksonville. MJD has had to share the load up until last year and still produced 9+ touchdowns every year. In his first full year as a starter MJD over 1750 total yards (in a down receiving year) and 16 total touchdowns; with no competition for MJD and a struggling passing game look for MJD to get more of the workload this season putting him in a position to better last year’s numbers and be your number 2 runningback in Fantasy Football for 2010.
Finally we add to all this a holdout for a new contract that looks to be in a stalemate at this point in time and if no movement is made promises to last into the season as Johnson “Can’t play for $550,000.” CJ is holding out for a well deserved raise and I feel the Titans should give him what is coming to him. With Players like CJ Spiller and Jahvid Best looking to make more than Johnson and have never played a down in the NFL I feel for him and agree with his stance but don’t let that pull at your heart strings on Draft Day. Make the smart decision and choose AD or MJD. Put your team in the best position to win.
