But let’s not just focus on last year’s numbers for Johnson, let’s look at what history has taught us. Five other players have rushed for over 2000 yards in a season and their follow up year was nowhere close to as spectacular. OJ Simpson had 1,125 yards and 3 touchdowns, Eric Dickerson went for 1,234 and 12 touchdowns and Barry Sanders (the best yardage season following 2k) almost cracked 1500 at 1491 yards and only 4 touchdowns. The other 2 players to run for 2000 yards in a season failed to play the entire next season with Jamal Lewis playing 12 games for 1,006 yards and 7 touchdowns, and Terrell Davis only able to muster 4 games for 211 yards and 2 touchdowns. If we combine these stats for the best possible season you are still looking at losing 500+ yards and at least 2 touchdowns, meaning your fantasy team loses 70+ points on the season from this one player, not a good way to start your draft.

Let’s also look at your 2 better options for drafting first over all. Adrian Peterson was considered by most to have a down year last year with 1,383 yards and 18 touchdowns. 18 Touchdowns and a down year!?!? With Chester Taylor gone, AD will get more of the carries, all the goal line carries and plays behind one of the better lines in football. Whether Favre is back or not look for Minnesota to rely more and more on the running game and for Peterson to produce big for your team. Maurice Jones-Drew has a similar situation in Jacksonville. MJD has had to share the load up until last year and still produced 9+ touchdowns every year. In his first full year as a starter MJD over 1750 total yards (in a down receiving year) and 16 total touchdowns; with no competition for MJD and a struggling passing game look for MJD to get more of the workload this season putting him in a position to better last year’s numbers and be your number 2 runningback in Fantasy Football for 2010.

Finally we add to all this a holdout for a new contract that looks to be in a stalemate at this point in time and if no movement is made promises to last into the season as Johnson “Can’t play for $550,000.” CJ is holding out for a well deserved raise and I feel the Titans should give him what is coming to him. With Players like CJ Spiller and Jahvid Best looking to make more than Johnson and have never played a down in the NFL I feel for him and agree with his stance but don’t let that pull at your heart strings on Draft Day. Make the smart decision and choose AD or MJD. Put your team in the best position to win.

You Outta Know ( Alanis Morrisette)

Kurt Warner, Arizona Cardinals – He has been a fantasy stud for most of the time he has been on the field as a starter, but he RETIRED!!! This is not a move him down your list situation, this is a move him off your list situation!

Terrell Owens, Free Agent – Owens has been a guy you could count on for consistent fantasy football production for many years. Last season however, he was invisible in Buffalo with the exception of a couple of weeks and this year he cannot find a gig. T.O. is going to be 37 this year and his skills has diminished noticeably. Look for him to be signed at some point in the preseason by a team that loses a wide out to a season ending injury. Don’t look for him to be much help in the fantasy department at any point in whatever is left of his career. (if Vincent Jackson holds out until week 11 like he is threatening to he might land in San Diego)

Ben Rothlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers – Ben has a terrible off season on a personal level, which has resulted in a 6 week suspension handed down by “General Goodell”. Although Ben will be a very good fantasy quarterback for years to come, you will not be able to count on him this season until week seven. If you can get him in the spot you would usually draft you back up quarterback, he is a steal, but don’t reach for him early. Even when he does get back on the field, the Steelers offense is not what it was.

Don’t Let Me Be the Last to Know (Brittney Spears…sorry the song title fit)

Steve Slaton, Houston Texans – Slaton was one of the pre draft darlings last year. I saw some lists that had him ranked as high as 10th overall. Slaton rewarded all of his promoters with 437 yards, 4 touchdowns and 7 fumbles. ( a 75% drop off in yards and a 105% increase in balls on the turf) He also lost his job to Ryan Moats. Heading into this season, the coaching staff in Houston has already said that Adrian Foster is the starter and the Texans drafted a running back early. I am not a genius but all this added up equal a short career as fantasy stud for Steve Slaton.

Clinton Portis/ Willie Parker/ Larry Johnson Washington Redskins – Since what I am going to say applies to all of these former fantasy studs, you can apply it to which ever one you are thinking about drafting. Fantasy running back x, has a lot of mileage on him and although he was once a player you could anchor your fantasy team around, those days are over. He (Clinton Portis/ Willie Parker/ Larry Johnson) has lost much of his ability to hit the holes with gusto and break tackles in the open field. He (Clinton Portis/ Willie Parker/ Larry Johnson) is not nearly as fast as he once was and he is now playing in a Mike Shanahan offense which is loyal to no running back under any circumstances. I am avoiding him completely.

Wes Welker New England Patriots – Although Welker is still young and playing in a high powered offense, he is coming off a major knee injury. Modern medicine has allowed many quarterbacks to come back from this type of injury and be the same as they were before but the same cannot be said for wide receivers who depend on speed, quickness and the ability to take big hits across the middle. All indications point to Welker making a full recovery but that doesn’t mean that he will be the player he once was. If Welker was the type of player who depended on his size and his hands to make his living I would feel for more confident, but he depends on his legs and speed. If you can get him late he is worth a flyer, but again, don’t reach for him.

What You Don’t Know (Expose)

Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts – Addai came on so strong early in his career that he ousted Edgerrin James from the team entirely. He became a sure top ten fantasy running back for several years because he played for a high powered offense, he caught balls out of the back field and he rarely put the ball on the ground. In the last couple of seasons however, Addai has had some serious durability problems and it has forced the Colts to look for the next RB1. Last year Donald Brown looked good in his replacement of Addai during injury time and will undoubtedly take even more of Addai’s livelihood this season.

Steve Smith Carolina Panthers (calm down Pretzel, I am not saying he isn’t good)– Steve Smith has been the little engine that could on an offense that could not for a couple of seasons now. Unfortunately for Steve, the uncertainty at quarterback and the emergence of the power running game in Carolina has eaten up most of his prime years. Although there are many fantasy wide receivers who go on producing well into their mid 30’s most of them are not burners who have built a career playing like they 4 inches taller and 25 pounds heavier than they actually are. The Quarterback uncertainties remain in Carolina and although Smith is still likely to out produce every non running back on the Carolina roster from a fantasy football perspective, he is no longer the top 5 guy he once was, he may not be a top ten guy. In fact, if Carolina’s passing attack is as sad as it was last year, he may not even be the best Steve Smith.

Jason Snelling, Atlanta- Snelling is going to be the ground artillery this weekend against the Buffalo Bills worst run defense in the league and with Turner out and Norwood limited, Snelling should have no one poaching carries goal line or otherwise.

Cedric Benson, Cincinnati- You probably rode this horse from week 1 through injury and then you sat and watched Bernard Scott and Larry Johnson get all the carries in his stead. But Ced-Ben is back and the Chiefs are TERRIBLE against the run. Play him with confidence.

Malcolm Floyd, San Diego- The double coverage in San Diego goes to Vincent Jackson, this will leave Floyd one on one all the time. He is definitely not as talented Jackson but it is easy to be as productive when Jackson has to carry 2 or 3 guys on his back all the time. Look for 6-8 receptions from Floyd this weekend and since the Titans have the 30th ranked pass defense in the league it is not out of the realm of possibility for him to find the endzone as well.

Alex Smith, San Francisco- Alex Smith has been one of the great comeback stories of 2009. Since he took the starting job and transitioned into a lot more shotgun formations Smith has started the conversation that maybe he can be the franchise quarterback he was supposed to be in the first place. Look for him to tear up the happless Lions this weekend. He should throw a couple TDs to Vernon Davis and maybe even one to Michael Crabtree.

Good Luck this week champions!  follow us throughout the offseason and we will keep you up to date on any movements of big names and players who are not yet big names but you should know them. 

Look for our email in the spring to take advantage of our earlybird specials on the UberRank for 2010!!!!!!

At this point everyone obvious should be gone, so I am not going to waste my time telling you to pick up guys like Brandon “f-ing” Marshall or Andre Johnson. I am going to throw out a couple of players that might still be available.

Quinton Ganther, Washington- Ganther has taken most of the work away from the aged Rock Cartright, and rightly so. There is a reason that Rock has been a career 3rd stringer. Ganther has made the most of his opportunities putting up big fantasy numbers each week and with Washington actually playing well… Head Smacker

Jason Snelling, Atlanta- Even with Norwood back in the line up, Snelling has been the better runner, look for them to split carries until Michael Turner gets back but Snelling will get most of the looks at the goal line making him more valuable than Norwood. Not So Obvious

Hakeem Nicks, NY Giants- The explosive rookie looks to have snatch a starting job away from Mario Manningham. He has been getting progressively more consistent down the stretch and looks to get even more looks since he is a better route runner and has so much more upside than Mannningham.

Jason Campbell, Washington- Campbell has been much better lately and might be a good long shot if you really need a QB. He has averaged more that 20 fantasy points a game over the last 3 weeks and has the beat up Giants defensive backs and the Cowboys secondary coming up, both teams can give it up through the air.

Playoff time!!!

If your league is worth its salt most of the decent players have been snatched by someone and like I always say, if you are in a league where there are head smackers still available…you don’t need my help.

So, here are some Not So Obvious pick ups for you that should produce well in the next 3 weeks.

Cardinals Defense- I know that i don’t usually list defensive teams in this column but I have to mention the Cards. Arizona’s defense are notoriously slow starters but if you remember last season’s playoff run, they seem to come on at the end of the year. Plus, the have the 49ers, the Rams and the Lions down the stretch…JUICY! I can almost hear Rodgers-Cromartie salivating.

Kenny Britt, Tennessee- 15 points per game over the last three games and with Nate Washington missing every ball thrown his way Britt is becoming a very attractive target. The Titans also have the Rams, Dolphins, Chargers coming up and only one of these is in the top 20 pass defenses.

Davonne Bess, Miami- Has become the go to guy in Miami. He is playing the role that the fish thought Ted Ginn would play with the departure of Wes Welker and catching 100 balls again. Henne is getting him the ball often and it should continue with the Jags, Texans, Titans (all bad pass defenses) down the stretch.

Antonio Bryant, Tampa Bay- With the emergence of Josh Freeman as a real NFL quarterback has come the resurgence of Bryant.

Chad Henne, Miami- (See Davonne Bess) Henne has finally been looking like the pro he was projected to be. Also, he is playing 3 of the worst pass defenses in the league in weeks 14, 15 and 16.

Remember it does not matter where they were ranked coming into the season, if you have to drop a marquis name to pick up a hot player, do what you have to do…THERE IS NO TOMORROW

Fred Jackson, Buffalo – 

Jason Avant, Philadelphia - DeSean Jackson was knocked out of the game yesterday with a concussion, Avant picked up the slack.  If Jackson is out next week, Avant is a great flex option. Head Smacker

Donnie Avery, St. Louis-  The Rams seem to be moving the ball a little bit, if this continues Avery should continue to be serviceable as he has been the last few weeks.  Hail Mary

Jerious Norwood, Atlanta – Norwood had a great game after Turner re-injured his ankle.  Look for Norwood to get an increased workload if Turner cannot go. Not so Obvious

Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay- The kid has put up numbers ever game he has played, it is time to start believing. Not So Obvious

Larry Johnson, Cincinnati- Although Bernard Scott had a decent game last weekend, it looks like the Bengals are going to use Grandmama more often if Benson still can’t go.  Not So Obvious

Chris Chambers, Kansas City-  17 catches since joining the team.  He is looking like a primary target for Cassel and they have developed some quick chemistry.  Not So Obvious

**********Playing for Week 16*************

In case you are locked into the playoffs already and are looking for a sleeper to stash away, here are a couple of Hail Marys for you.

Laverneus Coles, Cincinnati- Coles is available in most leagues and the Bengals have the terrible Chiefs pass defense on week 16.  Since the Bengals will have a playoff spot locked up by then, they might be resting Ocho Cinco making Coles a more active target.

Malcolm Floyd, San Diego- Floyd is definitely available, the Chargers love to throw and they are playing the Titans who have one of the most porous pass defenses in the league.

Vince Young, Tennessee- Vince had some serious head problems in the offseason and he is still not putting up huge numbers but he has been consistent.  Young is more a value because of his legs, if your league give more points for rushing touchdowns, he might be worth a look if you are in real trouble.  Hail Mary

Brady Quinn, Cleveland- I know that everyone looks better than they are against the Lions but Quinn was a first round pick and has all the tools.  Maybe he finally has his head out of his ass. Hail Mary

Rock Cartwright, Washington- Rock is a third option on a team who’s first option is mediocre.  Rock is not going to save your season but if you need help at RB he might keep you afloat for a couple weeks. Not So Obvious

Fred Jackson, Buffalo – If you own Marshawn Lynch, you should already own Jackson but…. Lynch was carted off the field last Sunday and although they are saying  he is day to day, it looked much worse.  Head Smacker 

Bernard Scott, Cincinnati- 119 yards and  Benson still questionable, even with the signing of Larry Johnson Scott still looks like the guy as long as Benson is out.  Not So Obvious

Mohammed Massaquoi, Cleveland-  See above (Brady Quinn seems that he might have his head out of his ass).  If this is the case, Massaquoi will be productive if he can hold onto the ball.  Not So Obvious

If you have been reading these posts weekly, most of these guys will not be available but what can I do when I am at least a week ahead of everyone else.

 Jason Snelling Atlanta-  Turner and Norwood both out.  Snelling ran well last weekend and Atlanta is a team that loves to run.  Snelling is only good until The burner gets back.   Not So Obvious

 Ricky Williams, Miami- Reports say Ronnie Brown is out for the season, since Williams was putting up numbers with Brown in the game, he should only get better with brown out.  Head Smacker

 Ladell Betts, Washington- Betts is the starter again this week,  Portis is showing no sign that he is in a rush to return so Betts could be a viable option for the next few weeks. Not so Obvious

Justin Forsett, Seattle- I assumed that it would only be a matter of time before Julius Jones was knocked out of the line up but I figured it would be Edgerin James who got the call, I was wrong. Don’t get too crazy though, Forsett is facing a stout Minnesota run defense this week.Not so Obvious

 Jeremy Maclin, Philadelphia-  In our Fantasy Football Index interview before the season, we picked Maclin as the first round rookie wide receiver most likely to make an impact in his first year and if it wasn’t for Percy Harvin we would might have been right.  He has been very involved in the offense lately and should stay that way.  Hail Mary

Robert Meachem, New Orleans-  This should be a head smacker but every time I say that about Meachem he goes into witness protection.  He appears to be the number 2 on this team and should put up consistent numbers.  Head Smacker (again)

David Garrard, Jacksonville-  Garrard and the Jacksonville offense seem to have found a rhythm and Garrard and Sims-Walker have developed great chemistry.  Not So Obvious

Jamaal Charles, Kansas City- With the inevitable departure of Larry Johnson, Charles finally gets the job to himself.  If Cassel can get a little protection and open up the passing game a little, Charles just might get some room to run.  Not So Obvious

Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay- The rookie looked very rookie-ish when he lined up under center, but when they moved him back into the shotgun he looked poised, strong and accurate.  Look for Tampa to use him out of the shotgun more often and look for him to be adequate as your QB2.  Not so Obvious

Ladell Betts, Washington- Betts has always made the most out of his opportunities and he is better out of the backfield than Portis.  With Portis sidelined indefinitely with a concussion, Betts might make some noise.  Not So Obvious

Robert Meachem, New Orleans- The reason Meachem is available right now is because he has a problem with consistency.  If Moore is out again and Colsten taking the double coverage, Meachem should have a big game against the  Rams next week.  Head Smacker

Chris Chambers, Kansas City- Chambers seems to have developed some immediate chemistry with his new quarterback.  He actually has some talent and if his first game is any indication, he looks bent on proving it.  He has had problems being the number 2 guy hopefully that changes in KC.  Not So Obvious

James Jones, Green Bay- Jones is doing everything he can to make sure that Jordy Nelson does not have a job when he comes back.  Jones is big and fast and often open.  He may be worth a shot if you have room.  Hail Mary

Matt Cassel, Kansas City-  Cassel has not lived up to the billing so far this season, but it is tough when you are throwing from your back.  His O-Line is back from injury and he now has a running back who can catch balls on all downs which is helpful when you are running for your life.  With the addition of Chambers, Cassel should have enough weapons now.  Look for him to pull out of his tail spin.  Not So Obvious