Pretzel’s Picks Week 2 – Road Warriors Week

Oakland Raiders by 2.5 at the Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins are a mess this season.  Hopefully they have changed their snap count this week after JJ Watt told everyone to watch Hard Knocks to get it.  I don’t think it will matter though.  Run DMC is going to have a huge game this week as the Raiders take this one by 7.

Dallas Cowboys by 3 at the Seattle Seahawks

Seattlecouldn’t beat the Quarterbackless Cardinals last week and they aren’t going to be able to hold off the Cowboys this week. Dallasby 10.

Washington Redskins by 3 at the St. Louis Rams

I was at the Lions-Rams game last week and the Rams are bad….Really bad.  They only moved the ball once and all their points off turnovers.  They also could not stop the Lions from marching down the field.  Shanahan will have a game plan to dismantle the Rams as RGIII has another fantastic game. Washingtonby 2 touchdowns.

Philadelphia Eagles by 2.5 at home over the Baltimore Ravens

How bad did the Eagles look last week against the awful Browns?  Ravens actually showed that they have a good offense after so many years of the defence carrying this team.  Ravens win this one on the road.

Eliminator

For my eliminator I will take the Houston Texans over the Jaguars.

Top Targets for 2012 Week 1

Week One is in the books and you need some help.  Here are a few guys who will help you fill the whole in your team, but only love will help you fill the whole in your heart…just saying

Head Smackers

Kevin Ogletree, WR, Dallas Cowboys – Ogletree came out of nowhere last week and surprised everyone especially me with an enormous game.  I am sure he is not going to go for 100+ yds and 2 touchdowns every week, but with the Uber-talented Dez Bryant and the resurgent Miles Austin taking defenses away from him Ogletree is in a great position to put up numbers all season.

Pierre Garcon, WR, Washington Redskins – We have been saying since the preseason that if any Washington wide out will have any production this year, it will be Garcon.  The question was, will RG3 be able to deliver the ball to anyone consistently (that looks cleared up)

CJ Spiller, RB, Buffalo Bills – Fred Jackson is the best running back in Buffalo, but he will not be on the field for over a month.  That leaves CJ Spiller as the man once again. Buffalo is not nearly as bad as they appeared this weekend and as bad as they looked, Spiller looked great.  He should be owned in all leagues.

Alfred Morris, RB, Washington Redskins – The Shanahan RB carousel has stopped at Alfred Morris…..for now.  Grab him if he is available but expect to be angry all year.

Joe Flacco, QB, Baltimore Ravens – Flacco has been on my top targets list every week for 2 years!  The guy is good , has been good.  Make no mistake, Flacco is no Drew Brees but if you need a great mid tier quarterback, who will get you the 17 points a game you need from a fantasy quarterback to win a championship, he is your guy.

Robert Griffin III, QB, Washington Redskins – Yes, yes, yes the third redskin this week. Yes, anyone can pick guys from a team that put up 40 points and tell you to pick them up but hear me out.  RGIII looked good through the air, good on the ground and he has the Shanahan system to take some pressure off him.  To top it off, he faces a juicy schedule over the next few weeks,St. Louis,Cincinnati,TampaBay….very nice.  Plus I got burned last year not picking Cam Newton early.

Not So Obvious

Kevin Smith, RB, Detroit Lions – 91 all purpose yards and 2 touchdowns? The only reason Kevin Smith is not a head smacker is because he put it up against the Rams and the Lions will be facing some real defenses as the season goes on.

Randy Moss, WR, San Francisco 49ers – Randy Moss is not really Randy Moss but he is still Randy Moss.  Big Target, great hands, not really the vertical threat he once was but he will score this season.

Danny Amendola, WR,St.Louis Rams – The Rams offense looked terrible last weekend but in their defense, the Lions have a REALLY good defense.  Amendola is a quality receiver and one of the very few offensive threats the Rams have. If you need bye week help, he is it.

Knowshon Moreno, RB, Denver Broncos –Moreno has been an unmitigated disaster as a fantasy RB since he entered the league.  This year, he is finally not the starter…PHEW! But he is the back up of Willis McGahee who is 200 years old and bound to get hurt.

Hail Mary

Ronnie Brown, RB, San Diego Chargers – I have Ryan Mathews on 2 teams so I want so badly for him to get healthy…but he is Ryan Mathews and Ryan Mathews has never been healthy. If he misses any substantial time, Brown might have some value.

Alshon Jeffery, WR, Chicago Bears – Jeffery is a tall burner out of South Carolina who is going to be reaping the benefit of Brandon Marshall’s double teams.  Don’t be surprised if he surprises everyone but you.

Pretzel’s Picks Week 1

Detroit Lions by 7 at home over the St. Louis Rams

Lions are going to start their season off with a bang.  Sam Bradford and crew looked alright the last couple games of preseason but they just will not have the fire power to keep up with the Lions.  My Lions are going to whoop Deej’s lowly Rams and we will be there to watch it first hand.  Lions by 10.

Atlanta Falcons by 3 at the Kansas City Chiefs

This game isn’t even going to be close.  This is another example of teams not able to keep up with a power house offence.  Falcons have to many weapons to be stopped by the Chiefs.  Falcons by 2 touchdowns

New England Patriots by 5.5 at the Tennessee Titans

I expect Chris Johnson to bounce back in a big way this year and this game will be the starting point but he will not be able to beat the Patriots on his own.  With Kenny Britt suspended Jake Locker has lost his #1 target.  Brady and Company should run wild on the Titans and take this one easily.  Patriots by 9.

New York Jets by 2.5 at home over the Buffalo Bills

The Bills are going to surprise some people this year.  Looking at their schedule they have at least 10 winnable games starting with this one on the road.  Sorry Jets fans you just can’t win games in this league without scoring touchdowns.  For my upset pick of the week I will take the Bills over the Jets on the road.

Eliminator

Let’s start with an easy one.  Chicago Bears at home over the Indianapolis Colts

Jump Early and Your Risk Will be Rewarded

In Response to Pretzel’s “Players to Avoid” article, I thought it only right to follow it up with a “players you should target” article. Since historically wide receivers and running backs have the most room for error, I assumed this is where you need the most help. These are not necessarily sleepers, but they are all players who hold more value than their rank would lead you to believe and if you jump a little early on them you will be richly rewarded.

Brandon Lloyd, New England Patriots
I have never been a big Brandon Lloyd, although I am sure he is a very nice person, but I have always been a huge Tom Brady supporter even thought I am pretty sure he probably a self important….i guess I don’t know that for sure, anyway I am digressing. Reports have Tom Terrific and Big Brandon already showing some chemistry during OTAs. This should not be a complete shock considering they have both played in Josh McDaniels system. If Welker continues to cause defenses fits, Lloyd could be a surprise beast this season.

Darrius Heyward-Bey, Oakland Raiders

Heyward-Bey finally found a quarterback he would play for in Carson Palmer and proved that Al Davis wasn’t completely senile in his decision to draft him when he clearly shouldn’t have. Heyward-Bey had 29 receptions, 456 yards and 3 TDs in the last five games of the season. If he can continue to get open and Palmer’s arm stays attached to his shoulder, Heyward-Bey could put up a 1200 yard season.

Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons
Julio Jones, very quietly put up a pretty great rookie season with 54 grabs, 959 yards and 8 touchdowns. If Roddy White continues to command attention from opposing DBs and there is no reason he shouldn’t, Julio Jones could be a breakout star (which would make Matt Ryan a stud too). Jones really found a groove at the end of the year with over 500 yards and 6 touchdowns in his last 6 games. Jones won’t last long but he might last longer than he should, definite WR1 numbers potential.

Steven Ridley, New England Patriots
The Pats have not been a fantasy running back machine like some teams, but it is mostly because they never give anyone the ball for more than a minute at a time. However, the rock toters in New England have always put up numbers when given the chance. This season Steven Ridley will be that guy. With the law firm gone to Cincinnati and the Joseph Addai experiment already over, it appears that coach Bill has made a decision and it should pay dividends for fantasy owners considering Ridley is ranked in the 20s among RBs on most draft boards.

James Starks, Green Bay Packers
Many assumed that the Packers would draft a running back early making James Starks a lame duck or at the very least another committee member. That didn’t happen and Starks now stands poised as the guy most likely to capitalize on the constant nickel and dime packages Green Bay will face in their opponents futile attempt to slow down Aaron Rodgers. If he stays healthy, Starks will have a chance to put up big fantasy numbers

Toby Gerhart/Roy Helu, Minnesota Vikings/Washington Redskins

I listed these guys together because they are in exactly the same situation. They are back ups, in good running systems, behind very productive featured backs who are coming off ugly knee injuries that happened late in the season. Translation: they will be available late, they will most likely start and produce early and could end up the starter if their injured teammates have a set back or stumble on their return. Me likey.