Sleeper Running Backs for 2010

The term sleeper gets thrown around far too freely in realm of fantasy football. Some columnists will give you a list of the 6th through 12th best fantasy running backs from the previous year and call them sleepers because they are not 1 through 5. Others will look at the rookies with the best chance to start and call them sleepers. Anyone can do that. I saw a “sleeper” list that had Shonn Greene, Ryan Matthews and Beanie Wells on it, WOW way to go out on a limb! In order to be a sleeper, by my definition, they have to be players who are not in the top 15 at their position and there must be a compelling reason that they might be productive this season when they have not been in the past.

So, that being said, here are some fantasy running backs that I actually do consider sleepers.

Kenneth Darby St. Louis Rams
Steven Jackson is one of the last remaining fantasy running backs that can still be considered a featured back. He is also a guy who can’t seem to make it through a season healthy. This could give Darby the opportunity to shine in the resurgent Rams offense (said with extreme sarcasm, even if Bradford is the real deal, it will be a couple of years before things click). Whenever a work horse running back like Steven Jackson has a reputation as an injury risk his back up is always a good late round scoop, Darby (or whomever emerges as the RB2 in St. Louis) is no exception.

Bernard Scott, Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals transitioned last season into a power running team. Benson is going to get piled on this season and like Steven Jackson CedBen is one of the few featured backs left in the NFL. If he goes down, the offense will run through Bernard Scott. He averaged 4.3 Yards Per Carry last season in limited action but has great speed and can take it the distance. In addition, the acquisition of Terrell Owens and Matt Jones might actually revitalize the Bengals passing offense giving a shifty runner like Scott even more room to move.

Chester Taylor, Chicago Bears
Chester Taylor was a very productive fantasy running back but had his job snatched away in Minnesota. This was not because he was bad, it was more because Adrian Peterson is really really good, like scary good. Matt Forte, the incumbent in Chicago, had an off year last year and although he is poised for a bounce back year, he will have a short leash. If Forte slips again early one look for Taylor to be the beneficiary.

Michael Bush, Oakland Raiders
I know what I said, “Oakland is a wasteland where once promising fantasy performers go to die”. I still believe that but, with the arrival of Jason Campbell, the Oakland offense might actually be stabilized. I know that Jason Campbell is not held in the highest esteem when it comes to fantasy football quarterbacks, but remember, he has had 8 different offensive coordinators in his remarkably short career. He also outperformed some fantasy quarterbacks that are getting some really good pub, Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan. If Jason Campbell can get some comfort, this could lead to the emergence of a couple of wide receivers with great potential like Chaz Schilens and Louis Murphy. Ultimately this could result in some running room for Michael Bush. Darren McFadden was drafted high and had some great expectations but Michael Bush has been the more productive and consistent runner.

Larry Johnson, Washington Redskins
Grandmama has had a couple of off years and he was run really hard in KC but he has had a little break and look decent down the stretch in Cincinnati last season. I am not saying that Johnson is going to return to his 2005 fantasy production, but Shanahan does have a history of getting the most out of his running backs. Portis appears to be losing steam as the golden boy in DC and Willie Parker is rumored to be holding on by a thread. This could be the break Larry Johnson needs to become relevant in the ranks of fantasy football once again.

Chris Johnson is Not the #1 Pick for 2010 Fantasy Football

When we look back at the 2009 fantasy football season one thing stands out above the rest, Chris Johnson had over 2500 total yards and 16 total TD. This automatically makes him the number one pick in 2010 right? I am here to tell you no. He should be your number 3 pick. If we take a look at week 2 of the 2009 season, Chris Johnson became the first player in NFL history to record a 90-plus yard rushing touchdown, 50-plus yard rushing touchdown, and 60-plus yard receiving touchdown in one game. Seven of Johnson’s touchdowns were for 50+yards and 10 were for 25+ yards. If you are sitting there first overall and expecting these types of results again you will be very disappointed with your pick.

But let’s not just focus on last year’s numbers for Johnson, let’s look at what history has taught us. Five other players have rushed for over 2000 yards in a season and their follow up year was nowhere close to as spectacular. OJ Simpson had 1,125 yards and 3 touchdowns, Eric Dickerson went for 1,234 and 12 touchdowns and Barry Sanders (the best yardage season following 2k) almost cracked 1500 at 1491 yards and only 4 touchdowns. The other 2 players to run for 2000 yards in a season failed to play the entire next season with Jamal Lewis playing 12 games for 1,006 yards and 7 touchdowns, and Terrell Davis only able to muster 4 games for 211 yards and 2 touchdowns. If we combine these stats for the best possible season you are still looking at losing 500+ yards and at least 2 touchdowns, meaning your fantasy team loses 70+ points on the season from this one player, not a good way to start your draft.

Let’s also look at your 2 better options for drafting first over all. Adrian Peterson was considered by most to have a down year last year with 1,383 yards and 18 touchdowns. 18 Touchdowns and a down year!?!? With Chester Taylor gone, AD will get more of the carries, all the goal line carries and plays behind one of the better lines in football. Whether Favre is back or not look for Minnesota to rely more and more on the running game and for Peterson to produce big for your team. Maurice Jones-Drew has a similar situation in Jacksonville. MJD has had to share the load up until last year and still produced 9+ touchdowns every year. In his first full year as a starter MJD over 1750 total yards (in a down receiving year) and 16 total touchdowns; with no competition for MJD and a struggling passing game look for MJD to get more of the workload this season putting him in a position to better last year’s numbers and be your number 2 runningback in Fantasy Football for 2010.

Finally we add to all this a holdout for a new contract that looks to be in a stalemate at this point in time and if no movement is made promises to last into the season as Johnson “Can’t play for $550,000.” CJ is holding out for a well deserved raise and I feel the Titans should give him what is coming to him. With Players like CJ Spiller and Jahvid Best looking to make more than Johnson and have never played a down in the NFL I feel for him and agree with his stance but don’t let that pull at your heart strings on Draft Day. Make the smart decision and choose AD or MJD. Put your team in the best position to win.

You May Want to Avoid These Players…even if they helped you win last year

As with every fantasy football season there are going to be players that appear out of nowhere and explode (Miles Austin) and there will be players who everyone expected big things from who disappear (Matt Forte). In many of these cases, you can’t anticipate the change, you simply have to keep your ear to the ground and react quickly when you see someone blow up or blow apart. This is not always the case however. In many instances you can see the writing on the wall if you pay attention. Some indicators are huge red flags, others are a little more subtle. Being aware of these subtle changes and moving these players up or down on your prospect list can be the difference between a good draft and a draft day that is an unmitigated disaster. In our never ending effort to put our followers in the best position to win your fantasy football leagues, here is a list of players that have produced in the past but you might want to hesitate on a little bit on draft day. Some are obvious and some…not so much. Since we know that some of our clients pay for our service so that they don’t have to pay attention in the off season (or the season for that matter) we are going to list even the ones that you would have to be a potato to have missed. (the song titles for titles was something that just happened…don’t read too much into it)

You Outta Know ( Alanis Morrisette)

Kurt Warner, Arizona Cardinals – He has been a fantasy stud for most of the time he has been on the field as a starter, but he RETIRED!!! This is not a move him down your list situation, this is a move him off your list situation!

Terrell Owens, Free Agent – Owens has been a guy you could count on for consistent fantasy football production for many years. Last season however, he was invisible in Buffalo with the exception of a couple of weeks and this year he cannot find a gig. T.O. is going to be 37 this year and his skills has diminished noticeably. Look for him to be signed at some point in the preseason by a team that loses a wide out to a season ending injury. Don’t look for him to be much help in the fantasy department at any point in whatever is left of his career. (if Vincent Jackson holds out until week 11 like he is threatening to he might land in San Diego)

Ben Rothlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers – Ben has a terrible off season on a personal level, which has resulted in a 6 week suspension handed down by “General Goodell”. Although Ben will be a very good fantasy quarterback for years to come, you will not be able to count on him this season until week seven. If you can get him in the spot you would usually draft you back up quarterback, he is a steal, but don’t reach for him early. Even when he does get back on the field, the Steelers offense is not what it was.

Don’t Let Me Be the Last to Know (Brittney Spears…sorry the song title fit)

Steve Slaton, Houston Texans – Slaton was one of the pre draft darlings last year. I saw some lists that had him ranked as high as 10th overall. Slaton rewarded all of his promoters with 437 yards, 4 touchdowns and 7 fumbles. ( a 75% drop off in yards and a 105% increase in balls on the turf) He also lost his job to Ryan Moats. Heading into this season, the coaching staff in Houston has already said that Adrian Foster is the starter and the Texans drafted a running back early. I am not a genius but all this added up equal a short career as fantasy stud for Steve Slaton.

Clinton Portis/ Willie Parker/ Larry Johnson Washington Redskins – Since what I am going to say applies to all of these former fantasy studs, you can apply it to which ever one you are thinking about drafting. Fantasy running back x, has a lot of mileage on him and although he was once a player you could anchor your fantasy team around, those days are over. He (Clinton Portis/ Willie Parker/ Larry Johnson) has lost much of his ability to hit the holes with gusto and break tackles in the open field. He (Clinton Portis/ Willie Parker/ Larry Johnson) is not nearly as fast as he once was and he is now playing in a Mike Shanahan offense which is loyal to no running back under any circumstances. I am avoiding him completely.

Wes Welker New England Patriots – Although Welker is still young and playing in a high powered offense, he is coming off a major knee injury. Modern medicine has allowed many quarterbacks to come back from this type of injury and be the same as they were before but the same cannot be said for wide receivers who depend on speed, quickness and the ability to take big hits across the middle. All indications point to Welker making a full recovery but that doesn’t mean that he will be the player he once was. If Welker was the type of player who depended on his size and his hands to make his living I would feel for more confident, but he depends on his legs and speed. If you can get him late he is worth a flyer, but again, don’t reach for him.

What You Don’t Know (Expose)

Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts – Addai came on so strong early in his career that he ousted Edgerrin James from the team entirely. He became a sure top ten fantasy running back for several years because he played for a high powered offense, he caught balls out of the back field and he rarely put the ball on the ground. In the last couple of seasons however, Addai has had some serious durability problems and it has forced the Colts to look for the next RB1. Last year Donald Brown looked good in his replacement of Addai during injury time and will undoubtedly take even more of Addai’s livelihood this season.

Steve Smith Carolina Panthers (calm down Pretzel, I am not saying he isn’t good)– Steve Smith has been the little engine that could on an offense that could not for a couple of seasons now. Unfortunately for Steve, the uncertainty at quarterback and the emergence of the power running game in Carolina has eaten up most of his prime years. Although there are many fantasy wide receivers who go on producing well into their mid 30’s most of them are not burners who have built a career playing like they 4 inches taller and 25 pounds heavier than they actually are. The Quarterback uncertainties remain in Carolina and although Smith is still likely to out produce every non running back on the Carolina roster from a fantasy football perspective, he is no longer the top 5 guy he once was, he may not be a top ten guy. In fact, if Carolina’s passing attack is as sad as it was last year, he may not even be the best Steve Smith.

Free Agency, Fantasy Impact – 2010

It is the time of year once again where players who are at the end of their contracts or unhappy with their current situation empty their lockers and hit the road.  In most cases the addition and subtraction of free agents will affect an NFL team but usually has little effect on the fantasy value of the player.  This is not always the situation however, look at the case of Edgerrin to the Cardinals.  James became a fantasy irrelevant the second he left Indianapolis.  Chester Taylor and Lamont Jordan became top 10 fantasy backs when they got out of the shadow of Jamal Lewis and Curtis Martin respectively.   As always, it is our job to make sure you are in the best situation to dominate your fantasy league, this time of year we do that by letting you know how all the player movement will alter the fantasy values of the players on the move and the players on their new teams and old teams.  Here is a look at free agency 2010 and how it will affect your fantasy players.

Anquan Boldin, Baltimore Ravens- Although this was technically not a free agent move, it is the biggest move of the off season so far. Boldin has been one of the most productive wide receivers in the NFL over the last few seasons, when healthy.  He has also been one the most unhappy and most vocal about his unhappiness.  It appeared that the only person who could keep Boldin focused on football was Kurt Warner and with his retirement, it was only a matter of time before Boldin signed with anyone besides the Cardinals.  If Boldin stays healthy, we will be a legit first string Fantasy football wide receiver in a system that sorely needs a WR1, this definitely elevates his status.  His departure from Arizona leaves Larry Fitzgerald open to a lot more double teams since Steve Breaston is no Anquan Boldin, and with Matt Leinart at the helm in Zona, buyer beware on Fitzy.  This signing also has an effect on the ageless wonder Derrick Mason who has re-signed with the Ravens.  Mason has been Baltimore’s most productive guy forever his fantasy production will drop off substantially this season.

Nate Burleson, Detroit Lions- Nate Burleson is yet another fantasy Wide Receiver in the NFL who has a world of talent and cannot stay healthy long enough move into the elite.  Burleson had a great start in Seattle last season but dropped off greatly as the year went on.  His move to Detroit will not help his stats but it shouldn’t hurt them greatly either.  The biggest effect of the Burleson signing in Detroit will be felt by Megatron.  With a healthy legit WR2 on the team, Calvin Johnson might finally get some room to move out there.  In addition, the lions will have a healthy and more experienced Jason Stafford to air out some serious bombs to both Burleson and Calvin Johnson.  The Lions might not be a contender this season but if these three stay healthy, they will be fun to watch if nothing else.  Upgrade Burleson, Johnson and Stafford slightly.

Larry Johnson, Washington Redskins – Larry Johnson proved a couple of things last season, 1) It does not matter where he plays, he cannot make friends.  He was productive with the Bengals in limited action and even they didn’t want to keep him…The Bengals!  2) Johnson may actually still have some gas in the tank.  He got some action with Cedric Benson sidelined with injury down the stretch and actually produced.  We all know that the new sheriff in DC, Mike Shanahan can get the absolute most out of running backs, he got 1000 yards out of Olandis Gary!  Shanahan also likes to play the hot hand so if Portis has anything left (unlikely but possible) there could a dreaded timeshare situation in the capital next season which is a fate worse that death for fantasy football owners.  Both Johnson and Portis should be viewed as fantasy football flex players at best and not likely even that.

Thomas Jones, Kansas City Chiefs – Thomas Jones will be 32 this year and if we have an absolute truth in the NFL and in fantasy football it is that 32 year old running backs disappear off the face of the planet and it does not seem to matter how high a level they were playing at.  If you don’t believe me, see Eddie George, Shaun Alexander, Marshall Faulk, Curtis Martin, etc, etc, etc all fantasy studs and then….gone.  Watching Thomas Jones play last year, you might not have noticed his production diminishing but history is pretty clear on this one.  You might see Jones remain a factor in KC as a goal line back.  Marcus Allen and Emmit Smith extended their careers with a similar role change, but if you are looking for Jones to take over the starting role from Jamaal Charles and repeat his 1400 yard production, you will be sadly disappointed.  Charles should be downgraded slightly from a fantasy perspective because he will lose some work.  Shonn Green of the Jets should be moved into the top 10 fantasy football running backs with young legs great vision and that huge Jets offensive line to run behind, he is the big winner here.

Irrelevant Moves:

Chester Taylor to the Bears – Taylor will continue his role as player teacher, but now it will be for the Bears instead of the Vikings.  The Vikings will most likely sign a veteran back up to take Taylor’s role as sideline cheerleader.

Atwaan Randle El, Pittsburgh Steelers - Randle El was irrelevant in Pittsburgh the first time, he was irrelevant in D.C. and he will continue his perfect streak with his Pittsburgh stop part 2.

Antonio Byrant, Cincinnati Bengals – Bryant has had one great season in the last 9 and although he is might be in a better system in Cincy, his numbers will not change.  WR3  or flex player.

Stay Tuned for more off season activity…….