Pretzel’s Picks Week 1 2010

Jacksonville Jaguars By 2.5 at home over the Denver Broncos

I can’t believe the Jags are favored in this one.  Jacksonville is projected to have one of the worst defences in the league, I can’t see how they will stop the Broncos.  McDaniels will find a way to put points on the board.   Denver takes this one outright.

San Francisco 49ers by 3 at the Seattle Seahawks

The Niners will have one of the better defences this year with Singletary at the helm.  Seahawks will not.  I am interested to see how the second Pete Carroll experiment works out since the last one crashed and burned.  San Fran by 10.

Arizona Cardinals by 3.5 at the St. Louis Rams

The Rams have a rookie QB, no receiving core and a suspect offensive line . . . oh and they are awful on defence.  Arizona probably that won’t much better in any one category, however they should still have an edge in every category, except rushing.  Cards take this by a touchdown.

Dallas Cowboys by 3.5 at the Washington Redskins

The Redskins have a shiny “new” 33 year old toy under center . . . and that is about it.  The supporting cast hasn’t changed from last year and their former all world DT now DE can’t pass the teams conditioning test.  Luckily for them Shanahan is running the show and will put a decent product on the field, just not good enough to take this one.  Look for Romo and the Boys to get things rolling early with the win here, Dallas by 6.

Eliminator Pick

For my eliminator pick I will take the Chargers over the Chiefs at Arrowhead.  Chiefs are still a long way from being a playoff team.  Chargers have some pieces of their puzzle holding out but I look for Norv Turner to get back to doing what he does best, run the football.   Ryan Mathews starts his career off with a bang against Kansas City.

The Resurrection – Fact or Fiction?

Now before everyone gets their panties in a bunch, I am not talking about “the resurrection”.  This is a football site, so I am not going to spend my bandwidth discussing the probability of the afterlife of a Nazarene carpenter.  I am talking about a player’s ability to change their career direction by changing their zip code.  There is precedence set for this being successful.  Let’s jump in the wayback machine and revisit some other address changes.  In the ’99 and ’00 seasons, Jerry Rice set some new bench marks in his storied career.  For the first time in history, Rice had back to back seasons of less than 900 yards and less than 8 touchdowns and general consensus was that he was washed up.  The 49ers released him, so he promptly moved across the bay to Oakland where he spent the next 2 seasons putting up 1139 yards and 1211 yards respectively and a combined 16 touchdowns.  Corey Dillon started his career with 6 consecutive 1000 yard seasons and a firm spot as the only thing in a Bengals jersey worth watching.  In his injury shortened 2003 season, “clock killin” Corey Dillon, amassed a mere 541 yards and lost his job to Rudi Johnson.  2004 saw Dillon pile up 1600+ yards, 14 touchdowns and a superbowl ring!  The list goes on and on, Joe Montana, Priest Holmes, Rich Gannon, Cedric Benson, Randy Moss.  So, we know that it is possible for players to move to a new situation and flourish.  The question is, is it probable that any of this year’s cast of presumed washed up transplants will resurrect their career and become one of the fantasy relevant once again?

TJ Houshmandzadeh, WR Baltimore Ravens – TJ, although a talented receiver, does not have the skill set for a true number one, which is why he had success in Cincinnati.  This is not a new story, if you think back there are countless examples of number 2 receivers who had huge years, signed a big free agent contract and did nothing, Peerless Price, Brett Perrimen, JJ Stokes, Keenan McCardell, Muhsin Muhammad.  Now Houshmandzadeh had decent numbers, but he did not have fantasy football WR1 numbers and his numbers did not justify his paycheck.  In Baltimore with Anquan Boldin leading the way and taking all the double coverage, a solid running game to keep the safeties honest, Housh will be back in a spot that treats him well…the guy left open.  In addition, Dante Stallworth was lost to injury so Houshmandzadeh should see some lift in his fantasy value over last year and once again be relevant.

Mike Williams, WR Seattle Seahawks – Williams was left on the trash heap after his stints in Detroit and Tennessee.  He came into the league with great expectations and the only thing he accomplished was being the biggest bust is a string of WR first round picks for the lions. Now he did not turn out to be the disappointment that Charles Rogers did from a personal standpoint (he didn’t pass out at a red light) he just didn’t  realize any of his potential on the field.  However, he might have hung around just long enough.  He has played his way into a starting position in the offense that made him a star at USC this preseason.  He played so well in the preseason that the Seahawks felt comfortable cutting their number one target from 2009 (see above).   He is playing for his old college coach in Pete Carroll and he is in a pass first offense. The real wild card here is Deion Branch.  Branch has a history of health issues and if he goes down again this year, Williams could find himself in a position to be the number one target. Worth a late round flier.

Mark Clayton, WR St. Louis Rams – Clayton has only had one season in which he had any fantasy value at all and it was a while ago.  Although Clayton will be moving to a much less crowded wide receiver core, he will most likely end up being the guy who helped Laurent Robinson to become a true WR1.  Sam Bradford looked great in the preseason, but he is a rookie QB on the Rams. None of the Rams have fantasy value except Steven Jackson.

Matt Leinart, QB Houston Texans – Leinart had no fantasy value in Arizona with Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Steve Breaston and Edgerrin James. Next!

Larry Johnson, RB Washington Redskins – LJ was a super stud who was run into the ground in Kansas City.  He has been irrelevant for a couple of seasons but showed at the end of last season that he might have a tiny bit of gas left in the tank.  With an aging, injury prone Clinton Portis as the only guy between him and the starting job in a Mike Shanahan offense who turned Olandis Gary into a 1000 yard back, Larry Johnson might actually have a shot at value.

Jake Delhomme, QB Cleveland Browns – I hate Jake Delhomme, as a fantasy player, not as a person because I have never met him.  I am sure however that I would not like him as a person either. Jake was not relevant when he had weapons, now he is in Cleveland (see Matt Leinart), the defense rests your honor.

Derek Anderson, QB Arizona Cardinals – Anderson has a big arm, a pro bowl appearance a few years ago and ABSOLUTELY NO MOBILITY! I seem to recall another guy who played in Arizona with a big arm, a pro bowl appearance a few years before he got to AZ and absolutely no mobility, his name was Kurt Warner! Keep in mind Warner had a bit of the “washed up stink” on him when he got there too.  Keep an eye on Anderson.

Top 60 Fantasy Rankings (not UberRank)

Every year we get a lot of requests for an Overall Top 100 or Top 50 ranking list.  We don’t do this for the UberRank because the overall rankings are far too subjective.  It depends heavily on your league scoring system as well as your individual team needs.  But that doesn’t mean we don’t have our own opinion!   Now keep in mind, all rankings (with the exception of the UberRank) are subject to bias, mine are no exception.  As individuals Pretzel and myself are susceptible to our own prejudices but the UberRank is not!!  Below are my own personal top 60 overall rankings. Do not use this to draft you team, IT IS JUST MY OPINION!  Buy the UberRank !

Doyadoya’s Top 60

Does Preseason Equal Injury Season?

With the rash of injuries already in just the first week of preseason I start to wonder if the league should in fact shorten the preseason to protect the players in meaningless games for most of them.  Here are a few of the injuries that may have an impact on your fantasy football team.

Ben Tate, RB, Houston Texans – Tate will have surgery on his ankle ending his rookie campaign.  On a team that has a completely wide open backfield, Tate was expected to take some carries and possibly start.  Those of you with early drafts may have taken him on a flyer looking for that huge up side if he ended up starting in the same offense that brought us the endless supply of 1000 yard rushers and fantasy football stud running backs out of Denver.  You are now left looking for a player to fill a roster spot.  I would look to someone like Brian Westbrook.  He is on the verge of signing with a team (possibly the Rams) and is one injury away from being a starter(and if it is the Rams, he will have to carry that team).

Fred Jackson/Marshawn Lynch, RBs, Buffalo Bills – Jackson will be out 4-6 weeks with a broken bone in his hand and Lynch is gone for 3-4 weeks after spraining his ankle.  Holding out into the first part of training camp all means nothing now for CJ Spiller who is going to take all the first team reps in practice and start all the preseason games and probably most games for your fantasy football team.  This will give Spiller all the time in the world to remind the Bills coaching staff why they ignored glaring needs at quarterback and offensive line and picked him 9th overall in the draft.

Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals – Fitzy when down this week with a sprained MCL and will be shut down for the rest of the preseason.  For all you Fitzgerald owners out there this is worrisome as it gives him less time to develop his connection with the always underwhelming Matt Leinart.  For a team that traded away Boldin in the offseason I sure hope Steve Breaston and Early Doucet are the real deal or this will spell trouble for your fantasy football team if there are any lingering effects.

 Other injuries of note – Vernon Davis strained his knee this week.  The Beast should be fine but for an already troubled Alex Smith, he loses his best receiver from last year, at least for a little while and he needs all the help he can get.  Keep a watch on this situation as a lot of you are probably looking to Davis for WR type fantasy football numbers from the TE position for your fantasy team.

Mohamed Massaquoi strained his hammy during the Browns game this week.  If he misses time Jake Delhomme will have even less time to get on the same page with his best receiver . . . like it matters.  Delhomme had years to do that in Carolina but still couldn’t manage . . and that was with Steve Smith.

Torry Holt went on the IR ending his season and probably his career.  This won’t affect your fantasy football team but if I didn’t mention a former Ram going down DeeJ would have thrown a tantrum(those of you who listen to the podcast know that DeeJ thought Holt might actually be a factor).