Pretzel’s Picks Week 3

Cincinnati Bengals by 3 at the Carolina Panthers

The Bengals beat a beat the Ravens last week with a strong defensive output.  The Panthers are 0-2 with  -26 net points and a rookie QB having his first NFL start.  This should be a no problem for the Bengals.  Cincinnati take this one by 10 and CedBen gets back on track.

Minnesota Vikings by 11 at home over the Detroit Lions

The Vikings, with the exception of Adrian Peterson, have looked awful so far this season yet are favored by a ton over a Lions team that have lost their games by a total 8 points.   I expect AD to have a huge game against the lowly Lions but 11 points are ridiculous considering how awful the Vikings/Favre has played.  For my upset pick of the week I will take the Lions over the Vikings by a field goal.

Houston Texans by 2.5 at home over the Dallas Cowboys

After dominating the Colts in Week 1 the Cowboys squeaked by the Redskins last week and showed that the Texans can win on ground or through the air.  Dallas is a team in trouble.  It is difficult to win putting up 13 points a game and they definitely won’t this week against the high powered Texans offense.  Romo is going to be running for his life this week as the Cowboys go to 0-3.  Houston by 10.

Philadelphia Eagles by 2.5 at the Jacksonville Jaguars

The Eagles look to have a strong running game always have 2 runningbacks on the field at the same time.  Last week their passing game showed too.  The Jaguars looked strong against the Broncos in Week 1 and then came crashing down last week when they were destroyed by the Chargers.  This week MJD gets no room to run and the Eagles crush the Jags.  Philly by 2 touchdowns.

Eliminator

For my eliminator I will take the Baltimore Ravens over the terrible Cleveland Browns. 

Top Targets for 2010 Week 3 (Free Agents Dummy!)

Well the NFL has come back to earth a little this week.  Performers are starting to perform and winning teams are starting to win and of course people are getting injured.  This leads to some obvious head smackers.

Head Smackers:

Michael Vick, QB, Philadelphia Eagles: If you are in league that waited to see which Mike Vick would show up this week, the wait is over, it looks to be the same guy that made defenses look stupid in 2003-2005.  In addition, Andy Reid has said that Vick is the guy since he is “playing out of his mind”.  If he is available and you need QB help, he is your guy. Now make sure you temper your expectations of production a little bit because the defense was not expecting Vick in week 1 and week 2 was against the Lions. He is not going to produce every week like he has in the last two but he is still the best free agent QB out there.

Jason Snelling, RB, Atlanta Falcons: Snelling is only a head smacker if you have Michael Turner on your team.  Turner is supposed to be back for week 3 after a minor groin pull but anyone who has pulled a groin knows that it is never that minor.  Turner missed most of last season with injury and he is already missing time this year.  He would be a decent pick up for anyone since Turner will most likely miss time throughout the year but if you are a Turner owner, he should be your first option on the wire this week.

Mike Tolbert, RB, San Diego Chargers: Ryan Matthews is still the stud in San Diego but it appears that Tolbert is going to vulture some goal line reps and like the Snelling/Turner advice, you should own Tolbert if you own Matthews.  I am always a proponent of handcuffing your studs but in this case it is mandatory since since Tolbert has already shown he can produce if given that rock and Matthews has already missed reps due to injury.  If you don’t own Ryan Matthews Tolbert is still a decent stash if you have room on your roster for an “if come”.

Not So Obvious:

Mark Sanchez, QB, New York Jets: I have been high on the Jets in general and Sanchez specifically since the start of training camp.  Now don’t let me fool you, I was as skeptical as anyone after his performance in week 1 but I think the Sanchez we saw this week was the real Mark Sanchez.  I look for him to be solid all season, as a matter of fact, I just traded for him in my own league (thanks Kevin Kolb for putting in a position that I had to scramble already).

Demaryius Thomas, WR, Denver Broncos: Thomas was all the buzz going into camp, McDaniels actually compared him (favorably) to Brandon Marshall during the preseason.  After missing week one the jury was out but he stepped up in week 2 and showed he has the goods.   If you are looking for a WR2 or bye week help, Thomas is a great grab.

Kevin Walter, WR, Houston Texans: Walter looked spectacular in week 2 but remember, all that glitters is not necessarily gold.  Don’t forget that Andre Johnson is the guy and will be the guy in Houston, but it looks like the Texans offense is going to put up some real numbers this season and Walter looks to be a favorite red zone target.  Don’t look for him to catch 11 balls every week, but he should catch a TD most weeks.

Dustin Keller, TE, New York Jets: As I have said before, I am high on the Jets and Keller is a good choice at TE even if the Jets don’t do as well as everyone expects.  Keller is one of those Dallas Clark, Tony Gonzalez type of tight ends who run a lot of WR routes so he will put up decent numbers and always be a red zone threat.  If you need TE help, he is a great option.

Hail Marys:

Mario Manningham,WR, New York Giants: I almost never recommend a WR3 as a pick up in fantasy football under any circumstance but Eli seems bend on moving the ball around and the G-Men are going with a lot of 3 receiver sets.  Steve Smith and Hakeems Nicks are getting the coverage allowing Manningham to go 4 for 75 in week 1 and  4 for  85 and a touchdown in week 2.  Not bad for a scrud!
Josh Freeman, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Freeman is very quietly putting up a very nice fantasy season.  He is not flashy but he puts up adequate passing numbers around 180yds/week, he is averaging 2 TDs per week and he doesn’t make mistakes with the football.  He also has the added bonus of being able to run when he has to, you can count on about 40 yards a game on the ground which is a great bonus for a QB.  Great bye week option if you need one.

Pretzel’s Picks Week 2

Well after a brutal 1-4 Week 1 this week I bounce back.  Here are the picks.

Tennessee Titans by 5 at home over the Pittsburgh Steelers

This game is going to be hard fought and will have the feel of a division game.  Expect a lot of ground game and not too much through the air.  Tennessee is going to take this one by a touchdown on the legs of all three of their runningbacks, CJ, Ringer and Young.

Philadelphia Eagles by 6.5 at the Detroit Lions

Vick is going to be under center this week for the Eagles and their offense should be explosive.  The Lions have Shaun Hill under center this week for the Lions and their offense should be anaemic.  Hill may get you some good fantasy garbage time production once the Eagles are way ahead but that won’t help the Lions win this one.  Eagles by 10.

Dallas Cowboys by 7.5 at home over the Chicago Bears

Dallas lost last week after a last second touchdown was called back because of a holding penalty.  Chicago won last week because a last week because a last second touchdown was negated after a perfect call of a brutal rule.  Don’t let the records fool you.  Dallas isn’t going  down at their home opener to a team that barely beat the lowly Lions.  Cowboys take this one but aren’t able cover.  Dallas by 6.

Cleveland Browns by 2.5 at home over the Kansas City Chiefs

One thing we learned is that the Chiefs have a strong running game and the Browns have a hard time stopping the run.  For my upset pick of the week I will take the Chiefs over the Browns.

 Eliminator Pick

For my eliminator pick I will take the Packers at home over the Bills.  The Packers lost Grant for the season.  Jackson should be able to fill the void nicely in their pass first offense.

Top Targets for 2010 Week 1 (Free agents Dummy!)

Welcome to the first edition of Top Targets for 2010. Like last year, there will be three categories of waiver options. Head Smackers, which are pick ups that a 5 year old could advise you on, you really should not need help with them, but I will point them out anyway. Not as Obvious, which are players that might not have had the best game this week, but have showed signs that they will be consistently productive. Finally, Hail Marys, which are players that you will probably not find on anyone else’s waiver wire columns. In a lot of cases, the Hail Mary selections will be players that only had a single catch or none but were open a lot and were targeted regularly. I don’t waste your time talking about players that had good weeks but were most likely drafted in your league. So don’t look for me to tell you to pick up Arian Foster or Anquan Boldin.

Head Smackers

Brandon Jackson, RB, Green Bay Packers – Reports are the Ryan Grant is done for the season, this leaves Brandon Jackson, who looked very good this weekend, as the featured back in a very powerful Green Bay Offense. Grab him now.

Michael Vick, QB, Philadelphia Eagles – Kolb was knocked out of the game in week one with a concussion and with the leagues new “kid glove” approach to concussions, he will have to pass a test in order to play again. No worries for the Eagles though, Vick stepped in and was moving and playing like the Mike Vick of 2003, marching his team back into contention and picking up over 100 yards on the ground along the way. As long as Kolb can’t go (and maybe even when he can) Vick is a solid play.

Mark Clayton, WR, St. Louis Rams – Although the stat line may not show it, Sam Bradford had a very good first game. He did through 3 picks, but only 1 of them can be truly attributed to him. In addition, he showed some pretty amazing poise, working his team downfield with 1:41 left in the half and scoring a game tying touchdown. He reminded my a lot of Peyton Manning in his first season. Now, I am not stupid enough to think that the Bradford is going to be Peyton Manning and I am not stupid enough to think that the Rams are going to throw the ball 40+ times every week, but they obviously have some confidence in Bradford and they will be trailing often, so he will be throwing a little. This weekend, Mark Clayton was targeted 16 times for 10 receptions and 119 yards. He is definitely looking like Bradford’s favorite target and worth a grab if you need some help at wide receiver.

Legedu Naanee, WR, San Diego Chargers – There was a lot of preseason buzz about Malcolm Floyd being the replacement for Vincent Jackson. After one game it appears that Naanee is going to be the greatest beneficiary of the lack off Vincent Jackson. He looked quicker than Floyd and had little problem getting separation. He only had 5 receptions but he was targeted 8 times and made a lot of the balls he did get a hold of.  Also, the Chargers will be throwing and throwing a lot, so these numbers are not a flash in the pan.

Not As Obvious

Matt Hasselbeck, QB, Seattle Seahawks – Hasselbeck has always been able to deliver the ball, his only problem has been being able to keep himself on the field. However, Matt looked strong and ready to play this weekend. He also looked to be comfortable with the new QB friendly Pete Carroll offense. As long as he is healthy, Hasselbeck is a good option at QB.

Bernard Scott, RB, Cincinnati Bengals – In limited time Scott rushed 6 times for 35 yards and added 3 catches for 15 yards. Although the Pats effectively eliminated the running game for the Bengals this weekend, Bernard Scott seemed to be able to fine space when given a shot. Mike Lombardi said that Scott “will get more carries” and “his talent cannot be denied”. If you have Benson, grab Scott. If you have space for a bench stash, not a bad option for the stretch.

Austin Collie, WR, Indianapolis Colts – Collie should be in “Head Smackers” but his numbers are inflated this week because Manning threw 57 times. Just like last season, Collie and Garcon will trade weeks as the golden child playing Reggie Wayne to Reggie Wayne’s Marvin Harrison. Also, with balls also going to Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, Collie is not as much of a head smacker as he appears.

Mike Williams, WR, Seattle Seahawks – We talked about Williams in our podcast a couple of weeks ago (available at  iTunes, free) and said the he looked good in preseason and appeared to have wiped the stink of first round bust off of him. He is back with Pete Carroll and might be worth a look. I am saying it again, he looked good and found the end zone this weekend. He is fast, big and has great hands…is there a better WR combination?

Hail Mary

Jordan Shipley, WR, Cincinnati Bengals – Yes this is my second Bengal suggestion. With all the attention going to “Batman” and “Robin” as they are calling themselves on Twitter, Shipley had lots of room and snagged 5 balls on 7 targets for 82 yards. Shipley looks to be a decent possibility in deep leagues and if the Bengals continue to have problems with the run.

Peyton Hillis, RB, Cleveland Browns – Hillis had success in limited action with the Broncos before he landed in Cleveland and looks to be doing the save with the Browns. He is a great compliment to Harrison and will vulture a lot of the goal line carries. Worth a stash especially if you own Harrison.