Pretzel’s Picks Week 5

Chicago Bears by 2.5 at the Carolina Panthers

Chicago doesn’t have Cutler at the helm to make poor decisions and hold on the ball too long.  The playbook will be simplified for Todd Collins and the Martz system allowed JT O’Sullivan to look decent in a fill in roll in both Detroit and SF.  Panthers are giving up 113.5 yards per game so I look for Forte to have a good game as the Bears take this one by a touchdown.

Cincinnati Bengals by 6.5 at home over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

If you listen to our podcast you heard Deej talk about how the Bengals have no identity.  Last week I think they found their stride and realized that they have 2 great options on the outside for their franchise QB to throw to.  Having a good passing game will open up the running game and allow Benson to finally have his break out game as Cincinnati takes this one by 10.

Atlanta Falcons by 4.5 at the Cleveland Browns

The Browns beat the Bengals last week.  And to that I say who cares.  They are still the Browns and anything can happen in a division game.  The Falcons are 3-1 and will go to 80% this weekend.  Atlanta will take this one by 10.

Dallas Cowboys by 6.5 at home over the Tennessee Titans

Dallas showed before the bye they have both offensive and defensive issues.  Is a week off enough time to fix both?  I don’t think so.  For my upset pick of the Titans take this one in a close grind it out game.

Eliminator

For my eliminator I will take the Texans over the Giants.

Top Targets For 2010 Week 5 (free agents, dummy!)

Okay, every week I give you gold, I hope you are paying attention! I am going to say 3 names that you should have picked up by now. I am only going to list them, if you need reasons why you should pick them up, you are not paying attention and should go back to the last 3 weeks’ articles.

Peyton Hillis, Mike Tolbert, Kellen Winslow! I am not mentioning them again.

I got an email this week asking me if I thought that picking up LT would help him get through the bye weeks…if LT is still available in your league, you should be able to win without submitting a team!  Yes If Tomlinson is available in your league pick him up!

Now on to the real help.

Head Smackers:

Santonio Holmes, WR, NY Jets – Holmes is a guy that should not be available in your league, but you never know, you could be playing with idiots. He is on an offense that is putting up big numbers, he is as sure handed as it gets (see the superbowl highlights from 2009) and he is in the prime of his career. Oh and did I mention he has another star receiver on the other side of the field who will be drawing the doubles??

Ryan Torain,RB, Washington Redskins – I had Torain on the list last week because Portis is an injury risk. By the end of the game this week, Portis was in sweats on the sidelines. I am telling you, listen to me!

Brandon Lloyd, WR, Denver Broncos – It appears that Orton has decide which flavor of the week he likes best and it is Brandon Lloyd. If you can get Eddie Royal, take him first, if you can’t, grab Lloyd.

Not So Obvious:

Davone Bess, WR, Miami Dolphins - Brandon Marshall gets all the pub in Miami, but Davone Bess gets all the looks. If you have watched Miami play for more than one series, it is obvious who the play makers are. Marshall is a Randy Moss type talent but Bess is a Wes Welker-like player. He works hard, gets open, goes across the middle and doesn’t drop balls. He is already at 22 grabs for the season and that is going to continue, Chad Henne needs that to continue.

Houston Texans DT – I know the Texans defense looks terrible, they give it up like a cheerleader on prom night, but…With the return of their defensive anchor, rookie of the year and performance drug enhanced superstar linebacker Brian Cushing, the complexion and effectiveness of the Texans defense changes drastically. Cushing is the type of player that impacts the way teams scheme offensively much like Troy Polomalu, Bob Sanders and Brian Urlacher do. You have to account for them on the field which makes your offense less effective. If you need defensive help and the Texans are available, grab them.

Hail Marys:

Danny Woodhead,RB, New England Patriots – With the injury to the sure-handed and ageless Kevin Faulk, Danny Woodhead has become the 3rd down/Gadget player for the Patroits. Woodhead does not get a lot of action, but he makes the most of his chances and is a born playmaker. Don’t look for week in and week out production from him, but he could get you past your bye weeks.

Pretzel’s Picks Week 4

Cincinnati Bengals by 3 at the Cleveland Browns

Cleveland is awful and should get destroyed in this division match up.  Bengals have won 2 in a row and will make it three this week.  Cincinnati by 10.

New York Jets by 6 at the Buffalo Bills

After laying an egg in their first game Sanchez and the boys have won 2 straight and will win a third on Sunday.  Jets by 2 touchdowns

Indianapolis Colts by 7 at the Jacksonville Jaguars

Well this will be 3 this week.  3 road teams winning playing in division games.  They are also 3 teams that have won 2 in a row.  The Colts are on average 9 points/game ahead  their opponents through 3 games and remember they lost one.  The Jaguars are on average  14 points/game behind their opponents and remember they won one.  The Colts by 10.

Houston Texans by 3 at the Oakland Raiders

Houston stumbled last week but will get back on track against the Raiders.  The Raiders are tied for 2nd in the league only giving up 260.7 yards/game however , they are 24th in the league giving up 25.3 points per game.  Opponents are making the limited yards they are getting, count.  Texans will take advantage.  Texans by a touchdown.

Eliminator

For my eliminator pick I will take the rebounding Saints at home to beat up on the Panthers.

Top Targets for 2010 Week 4 (Free Agents Dummy!)

Head Smackers

Ken Darby, RB, St. Louis Rams: This is not really a head smacker for a couple of reasons, first because Steven Jackson will probably play and second, even if he doesn’t Darby will not be able to jump into Jackson’s role without missing a beat.  So, only a head smacker if you have Steven Jackson already and have room for a stash.

Willis McGahee, RB, Baltimore Ravens: Harbaugh has always been a “running back with the hot hand” coach, that is how Ray Rice got the job in the first place.  If Rice misses time and McGahee looks good, he could keep the rock for an extended period of time.

Kevin Walter, WR, Houston Texans: We had Walter as a pick up even when Andre Johnson was healthy, with Johnson nicked up, Walter has to get a bump.

Peyton Hillis, RB, Cleveland Browns: We had Hillis as a hail mary after week one, apparently he did not want to let us down.  He is the decided goal line vulture and making the most of every opportunity.  He will not put up week 3 numbers every week but will contribute.

Roy Williams, WR, Dallas Cowboys: I hate having Williams on this list because it looks like we are just chasing a big week, but there is reason for his success.  He has skills but the WR core is crowded in Dallas.  Dez Bryant looks to be hurt and might miss time, if he does and Austin continues to take the doubles, Williams could continue to produce. 

Not So Obvious

Donald Brown, RB, Indianapolis Colts: Addai gets hurt, we know this. Addai is listed as questionable. Brown is a good back with good hands in an offense that scores and uses the running back in the run game and the pass game, need I continue?

Kevin Smith, RB, Detroit Lions:  Jahvid Best is suffering from turf toe and if we learned anything from Deon Sanders besides the new word “shibbacle” it is that turf toe can end your career. It probably won’t end Best’s but he could miss some time. Smith is coming back from an ACL injury but he is still a better option than Morris if Best can’t go.

Ryan Torain, RB, Washington Redskins:  I loved Torain in Denver before he got hurt and I still think he can play.  Portis is due for an injury and even if he stays healthy, there is nothing saying Shanahan will not just switch for the sake of switching.

Sam Bradford, QB, St. Louis Rams: Bradford is not going to put up Peyton Manning numbers for you but, he has looked very steady so far and will continue to move the ball through the air.  He has developed some chemistry with Mark Clayton and is a safe bet for your bye week or as a QB2 in a 2 QB league.  No, I am not kidding!

Hail Mary

LeGarrette Blount, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers:  Cadillac Williams has just 139 yards for the season. Now I understand that the Bucs have had a couple of tough matchups but Blount had an average of almost 5 yards per carry score against the Steelers. If Cadillac continues to try to lose his job, Blount might just catch it and since the Bucs are heading into a bye week, you should be able to grab him even in deep leagues.

Maurice Morris, RB, Detroit Lions: I know I listed Kevin Smith as a pick up ( I can read)  but he is coming back from an ACL and if he has a set back and all of the stuff I said about turf toe is still possible, Maurice will be the man. Remember, I starting running back still has value, even on the Lions.

Anyone in a Denver Uniform with a WR number:  One of them is going to have a big week every week, the question is who? This week, my guess is Jabbar Gaffney.  He is the only one left who has not really had a big week yet.  Straight up guess.