Playing for Week 16 – This is what it is all about!

At this point in the season it has become very clear who will be playing for the hardware and who in your league will be making excuses.  If you are one of the few that have a legitimate shot at the big dance, good work.  if you are one of the also rans sitting in the corner sobbing and licking your wounds…better luck next year, try not drafting a defense with your third pick! 

In most leagues, the championship game is played on week 16.  This is to prevent the elite fantasy teams from being left with no one to play in the championship game while the Colts sit Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne and every other starter on their team to get ready for the NFL playoffs.  This is the only week you should be thinking about right now.  The fantasy playoffs are going to play out the way they play out, but the worst possible scenario is to have the planets align allowing you to get to the finals only to score 45 points because your marquis players have either been nicked up through out the year and are missing time, or being rested just to be safe. 

Here is the plan that I have put together using lessons learned from my own beats!  First step is to look at the schedule.  Look for good teams who are playing opponents with weakest defenses in the league.  At this point in the season you can be pretty safe in assuming that if a team is ranked 28th against the pass, they are horrible and will most likely give up big yardage to both QBs and WRs in week 16.  No one is 28th against the pass in week 13 by accident, it means they are terrible.  Next step is to look for the secondary receivers on these good teams playing bad defenses. (this applies to bad run defenses and secondary RBs on good teams as well, but good back up RBs are harder to come by and they are a bigger gamble because they may not see the field if the starter is healthy).  A perfect example of the type of player you should be looking for is Malcolm Floyd of the San Diego Chargers.   Floyd is available in more than 90% of ESPN fantasy leagues right now (this is critical, it is tough to pick up a player who is not available), he plays for a good team that loves to pass the football and most importantly, the Chargers are playing the Tennessee Titans who happen to be the 31st ranked defense against the pass!  The only way this could be better is if Vincent Jackson were available, which he is not!

So now you know who to look for, who do you get rid of?  This one is easy.  The first move is look at your kicker situation.  If you are still carrying more than one kicker, smack yourself and then drop one.  Next is defense.  Carrying a second defense is not as ridiculous as carrying a second kicker but it is unnecessary.  By now you know which defense averages the most points per game, just commit to one and be done.  If you have been following our advice here or on Fantasy Draft Master and you do not have an extra kicker or defense, good for you, but you still need to drop someone.  Your last option is to release your back up quarterback.  This is a risky move since it leaves you naked in the event of a major injury to your stud QB in week 15 but, if your QB goes down in week 15 your back up QB is probably not going to save your season anymore than someone you can snag off the waiver wire.  On the flip side however, having Laverneus Coles go off for 110 and a TD against the 28th ranked Chiefs defense might be the difference between being the champion and being the first loser.

So, to recap:

1. Look for good teams playing weak defenses on week 16
2. Grab as many play makers as you can get from those good teams
3. Drop all non-critical players on your team to make as much room as possible.  First, back up kickers, then defensive teams and last, back up QBs

Remember the reason I know this is not because I am some kind of fantasy football savant, it is because I have made every mistake in the book!

See you on the field!

To Sit or Start Your Studs??? This is the Question

Every fantasy owner goes through this dilemma on a weekly basis. This question becomes especially stressful when you have studs who are under performing or performing inconsistently. Matt Forte, Steve Slaton, Ladanian Tomlinson, Anquan Boldin even Steven Jackson, all studs who you spent early picks on and now every week they give you sleep loss and plenty of it.

The question is, if you are sitting on one of these pro bowlers and they happen to have a terrible match up, or they have not yet performed up to expectations, do you sit them and play someone unproven in their place? The answer to this conundrum seems very hazy with no clear answer…on the surface. If you play them and they do nothing, frustration builds. If you don’t play them and they explode for 25 points, you are an idiot. What do you do?

The answer to this “question for the ages” is actually more simple than it seems, it comes down to simple math. If you sit your stud, you need to have 2 things fall into place in order for you to not feel stupid. Your stud has to lay and egg, a big one and what ever marginal player you started in their place, has to come up big. In case you are a little slow, these two events happening at the same time are not as easy as it sounds. The reason you drafted Steven Jackson when you did is because (when healthy) he performs more often than he doesn’t and the reason you didn’t draft Austin Collie at all is because he is a complete unknown. If you start your stud only one thing needs to happen for you to feel validated, your stud needs to be his studly self, if he does..you are golden!

Here is meat of it. If you play your Matt Forte and he does nothing, you can blame it on Matt Forte. If you play Mike Wallace and he catches 2 balls for 18 yards while you sat Anquan Boldin who caught 6 balls for 118 yards and 2 touchdowns, you have no one to blame but yourself.

Don’t be a dummy, start your studs!

Planning on a Fantasy Championship Run? – Your Work Starts This Week

We have come to the point in the fantasy season where flukes and coincidences are becoming trends.  You can now start to make pretty good assumptions about who will have success running the football, who is going to get the most looks in the passing game and which defenses you should be hesitant to start your marginal running backs or wide receivers against.  This is also the time of the season where research becomes the key to success.   

In the first couple of weeks, everyone plays their studs and hopes for the best.  The problem is that the first couple of weeks of the season is the time when surprises are the norm and dependability is the exception.  Those weeks are behind us and we can start to make assumptions that we were afraid to make in weeks one and two.  For example, we can now safely assume that Cedric Benson has finally become the running back that everyone thought he would be coming out of U of T years ago.  With that we can also safely assume that he is a pivotal part of the Bengals resurgent offence built around a power running game and the arm of “Comeback Player of the Year” Carson Palmer.  We can safely assume that whomever the Colts choose to use in the WR2 spot in the post Marvin Harrison era is going to put up some numbers.  It was going to be Anthony Gonzalez but he got hurt, and now it is Pierre Garcon.  The truth is it could be me or Raven Simone, it does not matter, Peyton Manning is going to be Peyton Manning and everyone around him is going to flourish.  We are pretty sure that contrary to all of the preseason Ray Rice talk, Willis McGahee is going to be the go to back in a very powerful Baltimore offense (I know it feels weird saying powerful Baltimore offense). 

So what does all this mean?  It means that it is time to go to work.  This is the part of the season where championships are won and lost.  If you have spent any time playing fantasy football, you know that what I am about to say is absolute fact.  There is always at least one guy in your league who seems to make “lucky” waiver pickups or who seems to always “luckily” get an irrelevant player in a trade who comes on strong down the stretch.  If you are convinced that this guy or lady just has a large collection of horseshoes strategically placed in an uncomfortable area, there is no mystery as to why you never make it past the first round on the playoffs.  Now, every season there is usually someone who does happen to be truly lucky enough to have his first five draft picks perform as well as they should and stay healthy.  This guy puts his team on autopilot and sits back while everyone else hates him, for the other 11 people in the league, it is all about work.    

One of the great things about weeks 4 through 6 in the fantasy season is buy low shopping.  Right now there are several players who projected highly in everyone’s pre-draft cheat sheets, but so far have not done much to earn their paychecks.  Many of these are going to end up being lost causes due to bad team situations and flukes that appear to be trends.  Clinton Portis is a perfect example of a player that is going to ruin someone’s fantasy season.  Portis was ranked highly due to past performance, but he seems to have lost his burst and he is playing on a team that is going to lose a lot of games so their offense is going to be throwing…all the time.  This is not good if you are the owner of the “Cheeky Monkeys”.  (if you do not get this reference, email me, I will explain it. If you do get this reference, email me, we should hang out and go for beers).

Some of these underachievers however, are going to be the key to success in your run for the championship.  The first step is to look at reasons for the underachievement, if it is a short term problem that is going to work itself out, the player will probably bounce back.  Kerry Collins, although not a great fantasy QB, is someone who is probably still available in most leagues and might be a good back up plan in case your Drew Brees or Donovan McNabb is on the IR during your playoffs.  Collins has faced both the Steelers (with Polomalu) and the Jets surprising good defense in the first two weeks so his numbers are depressed.  The Titans will end the season however, facing the Rams, Bills, Texans, Cardinals and Dolphins.  Another great “buy low” grab if you have some players in your league with itchy trigger fingers is Matt Forte.  Forte was projected by many as a top three overall pick but has had a rough start due to some chemistry issues with Jay Cutler, but he is a legit stud on a team with very few weapons.  Cutler seems to have settled in and Matt Forte who is a great pass catcher out of the back field will be the beneficiary of Cutler’s increased confidence and comfort in the offense.  In addition, Forte still gets to play the Rams, the Lions (at least once), the Cardinal and the Browns.   

I am not suggesting that you should be constantly shuffling your team, there is no need to fix what is not broken, but if you see a weakness at this point and your can grab a diamond in the rough, now is the time to do it.   Remember, the key is to think long term.  Look at the schedules in weeks 12 through 16 and figure out which teams have the best match ups and who might be sitting behind a known injury concern.  There is no magic in fantasy football, the more active and informed you are the more successful you will be. 

This Week’s Strong Plays: 

Steve Slaton, Houston-  The Texans are facing the floundering Oakland Raiders.  The Raiders are in complete disarray and have not been able to stop anyone on the ground.  Add to that the fact that Matt Schaub has been lights out the last couple of weeks so the Raiders will have to play lots of pass defense formations.  Slaton should have plenty of room to move between the tackles 

Justin Gage, Tennessee- The Jags have one of the worst pass defenses in the league and they have been torched by every quarterback who has faced them.  Both Manning and Schaub went for over 300yds and Warner set a record against them with 24 completions in 26 attempts.  Gage has been Collins most frequent target this season especially in the red zone.  I would say that Collins is a strong play this week as well, but he is a free agent in most leagues. 

Eli Manning, New York Giants- Manning has been mister consistent this season. This week matched up against a Chiefs defense who has been questionable against the pass all year anyway but will have even more trouble this week since their suspect defense will have their hands full with the Giants 2 headed running back monster.

Not all that Glitters is Gold

There is an old axiom that states “not all that glitters is gold”.  This is true in life and it is especially true in fantasy football.  Week one was wrought with over performers that will have the trash sifters in your league foraging furiously.  One of the toughest challenges in fantasy football is to remember that you (and your players) are in it for the long haul and if you chase every rabbit, you will put yourself in a position that forces you to dump a proven player on your team because they are off to a slow start so that you can scoop up this weeks shiny new flash.  Don’t fall into the trap.

In the category of “fantasy fools gold” we should start with Devery Henderson of the New Orleans Saints.  Henderson amassed 103 yards on 5 receptions with a touchdown and had the 5^th highest production of all wide receivers.  Contrary to what the numbers say, Devery is the 5^th option on a Saints team that laid a record setting beat down on the hapless Detroit Lions.  Remember, not every team is the Lions.  The Saints will face a tough Philadelphia Eagles defense next week and Henderson should return to his standard 2 receptions for 35 yards and no touchdowns.  Fred Jackson of the Buffalo Bills is another player performing way over his head.  Jackson had a great game against the Patriots this past Sunday but he is ultimately a backup who happens to be capitalizing on the fact that Marshawn Lynch is suspended for 2 games.  Jackson should be productive for one more start but don’t sacrifice much to snatch up a player who only has one game left as the featured back.

The first week of football also had a disproportionately high number of underachievers who will make you look extremely foolish if give up on them. Andre Johnson of the Texans was blanketed by a surprising New York Jets defense and consequently looked very pedestrian with only 4 receptions for 35 yards and no touchdowns.  The Texans played Mike Tyson to the Jets Buster Douglas caught very off guard by the aggressive Jets pass rush, but Johnson should still be an every week starter on your team.  Matt Forte of the Bears was another highly touted fantasy stud who looked more like Clark Kent than Superman in week 1.  Forte’s anemic production was more a side effect of the poor play of Jay Cutler (really Jay, 4 picks?? You are making Josh McDaniels look like Stephen Hawking) than a reflection of Forte’s ability.  The Bears have a rough stretch coming up with the Steelers next followed by the Seahawks before they get their turn to wail on the Lions.  If Cutler continues to struggle, it could make the going pretty tough for Forte but he is too big a part of the Bears offense to not be started (he had 25 carries against the Packers this weekend, eventually a couple of those have to go for more that 1.8 yards).

Strong Plays for week 2:

Every player you have in a bright purple jersey.  The Vikings take on the Lions this weekend, so Peterson and Taylor should both have plenty of success at running back.  In addition, there will be enough balls for Berrian, Harvin and Shiancoe to make noise.  The Viking defense is a safe play against the rookie QB as well.

Terrell Owens, Buffalo Bills: Tony Romo torched the Bucs for 350+ yards last weekend.  Look for Edwards to do similar things and look for him to go to T.O. early and often.  Owens was not nearly as involved in the offense against the Patriots as he would like, I am sure he will make this known all week to everyone who will listen.  If history has shown us anything it is that the only way to make Terrell happy is to give him the ball!