Free Agency – Fantasy Impact Part 2

As everyone knows this year is functioning without a CBA. As a result a lot of impending unrestricted free agents have instead become restricted free agents, so the “free agency” part of the free agency period hasn’t really offered the fantasy football impact we were hoping for an “uncapped” season. The trades side of the business however have been a force impacting fantasy in a huge way but we will get that is a moment. Let’s look at free agents first.

Signings
Real Story, Terrell Owens, still unsigned!

Arizona Cardinals – The only signings to note for the Cardinals are QB Derek Anderson and LB Joey Porter. Both of these players have had success in the past and have the possible of a resurgence and big upside. However, Porter is getting really long in the tooth and always a head ache from an attitude standpoint and Anderson has only ever had one good fantasy football season. Anderson is intriguing because he had success on an awful Browns team, it will be interesting to see what he can do with protection and weapons. Keep in mind though that he does have really big feet, I mean really huge.

Atlanta Falcons- Dunta Robinson…that’s it. Is he enough to make a difference in the Atlanta from a fantasy football perspective? Probably not.

Cleveland Browns – Jake Delhomme, yes the same one that has been ineffective for several years in Carolina. He signed a big contract with the Browns after looking awful for a few years in Carolina, no idea why, oh ya it is the Browns, they are ridiculous. Seriously, if he does not hit Steve Smith for the 80 yard TD in the NFC championship game in overtime against the Rams, he is a valet attendant by now. If he is named the starter, that is a hit to the fantasy value of any skill players on the Browns. If you don’t believe me see Steve Smith’s numbers fantasy numbers for the last couple seasons. (although if you have Browns skill players on your fantasy team you are probably in trouble anyway).
Ben Watson – K2 (Kellen Winslow Jr. for the uninformed) was able to put up good fantasy numbers in Cleveland . . . Watson isn’t Winslow, I am just saying.

Houston Texans – Neil Rackers – Wait, isn’t he a kicker? Never mind

New England Patriots – Torry Holt – Holt seems like he has been around forever. He is the oldest 33 year in history and isn’t even close to the form he was in St. Louis but he may get some looks in New England. He is probably a non-factor, but with Randy Moss taking away all of the coverage, Holt has a chance to make some noise. He has amazing hands, he is one of the greatest route runners in history (thanks to tutelage by Isaac Bruce) and unlike Moss, he goes hard every play. If Welker show signs of linger effects of his surgery look for Holt go catch a lot of balls.

NY Jets – Jason Taylor – The Jets defense which was the best in football last season, just got better. These guys are going to be good on both sides of the ball. With Sanchez having Edwards, Cotchery and now Santonio Holmes to throw to will be a top 10 fantasy QB. No I am not joking.

Seattle Seahawks – Charlie Whitehurst – Heir apparent to Matt Hasselbeck?? Will it be this year? Maybe.

St Louis Rams – A.J. Feeley – Only on here because the Rams need a veteran to take some licks while Bradford gets used to the NFL game. Feeley is a perfect 2nd string guy to sit on the bench with a clipboard when Bradford take the field in about week 5.

Washington Redskins – The skins have been soooo busy this offseason. Signed Larry Johnson, Willie Parker and Ryan Torain (2 effective runners with a lot of wear on their tires and a full back the Shanahan once got production out of). With Shanahan in town you can be sure there will be a stock pile of horses in the stable with enough inconsistency to be pulling your hair out if you have anyone of these guys on your team.

Now let’s get to where the real action has been

Trades
Donovan McNabb to the Redskins I know, this sounds crazy for the Eagles, trading the best QB in franchise history to a division rival. Deon Sanders actually invented a word to describe it “Shibacle” ( I think he is just not that sharp and meant to say debacle). For Washington this trade is spectacular, finally they have someone that can run an offense and make good decisions, McNabb has never thrown more than 13 interceptions in a season. Now all they need to do is get him some weapons. To aid in that quest, rumors have McNabb suggesting to management that they sign free agent Terrell Owens. Yes the same one who was McNabb’s BFF and then they hated each other and then T.O. was doing sit ups in his driveway. That might work, it would give Santana Moss room to fly which is what he does best. Except for the fact that TERRELL OWENS IS A TURD! He is a cancer on ever team he gets near and his hands suck so he cannot be the possession guy they would need him to be. Even without the T.O. factor McNabb was able to get Philly to the NFC Championship 3 time with no one around him so this may work out after all. I am not sure if this trade will affect McNabb’s fantasy value but it definitely improves Santana Moss.

Tony Scheffler to the Lions, Ernie Sims to the Eagles – So I am not sure what or why the Eagles were in this trade. Why would a team that has terrible defense trade their most talented defensive player ? Especially for yet another tight end. Hey Lions, going all offense hasn’t worked for the last 10 years, try a different philosophy!!!!

Santonio Holmes To the Jets – Holmes is suspended for the first 4 games but when he comes back he should help Mark Sanchez become a top 10 fantasy QB (see above).

Brandon Marshall – So we have a T.O. type talent with a T.O. type head on a Bill Parcells run team . . . can anyone else hear “the player” being referenced. Marshall should help Chad Henne for years to come and make it so Ronnie Brown doesn’t have to take all the snaps. Look for this trade to upgrade the fantasy football value all of the offensive players on the Fins.

Jason Campbell to the Raiders – This will upgrade the value of the Raider WRs slightly but they don’t really have a player on the team, so it won’t matter. Jason Campbell fantasy value will drop greatly. Remember, Campbell had more fantasy points last year than Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco (don’t believe me, look it up). Oakland it an abyss for QBs, the last fantasy football quarterback to have any impact in Oakland was Rich Gannon (yes the commentator from NFL Blitz, same guy)

Free Agency, Fantasy Impact – 2010

It is the time of year once again where players who are at the end of their contracts or unhappy with their current situation empty their lockers and hit the road.  In most cases the addition and subtraction of free agents will affect an NFL team but usually has little effect on the fantasy value of the player.  This is not always the situation however, look at the case of Edgerrin to the Cardinals.  James became a fantasy irrelevant the second he left Indianapolis.  Chester Taylor and Lamont Jordan became top 10 fantasy backs when they got out of the shadow of Jamal Lewis and Curtis Martin respectively.   As always, it is our job to make sure you are in the best situation to dominate your fantasy league, this time of year we do that by letting you know how all the player movement will alter the fantasy values of the players on the move and the players on their new teams and old teams.  Here is a look at free agency 2010 and how it will affect your fantasy players.

Anquan Boldin, Baltimore Ravens- Although this was technically not a free agent move, it is the biggest move of the off season so far. Boldin has been one of the most productive wide receivers in the NFL over the last few seasons, when healthy.  He has also been one the most unhappy and most vocal about his unhappiness.  It appeared that the only person who could keep Boldin focused on football was Kurt Warner and with his retirement, it was only a matter of time before Boldin signed with anyone besides the Cardinals.  If Boldin stays healthy, we will be a legit first string Fantasy football wide receiver in a system that sorely needs a WR1, this definitely elevates his status.  His departure from Arizona leaves Larry Fitzgerald open to a lot more double teams since Steve Breaston is no Anquan Boldin, and with Matt Leinart at the helm in Zona, buyer beware on Fitzy.  This signing also has an effect on the ageless wonder Derrick Mason who has re-signed with the Ravens.  Mason has been Baltimore’s most productive guy forever his fantasy production will drop off substantially this season.

Nate Burleson, Detroit Lions- Nate Burleson is yet another fantasy Wide Receiver in the NFL who has a world of talent and cannot stay healthy long enough move into the elite.  Burleson had a great start in Seattle last season but dropped off greatly as the year went on.  His move to Detroit will not help his stats but it shouldn’t hurt them greatly either.  The biggest effect of the Burleson signing in Detroit will be felt by Megatron.  With a healthy legit WR2 on the team, Calvin Johnson might finally get some room to move out there.  In addition, the lions will have a healthy and more experienced Jason Stafford to air out some serious bombs to both Burleson and Calvin Johnson.  The Lions might not be a contender this season but if these three stay healthy, they will be fun to watch if nothing else.  Upgrade Burleson, Johnson and Stafford slightly.

Larry Johnson, Washington Redskins – Larry Johnson proved a couple of things last season, 1) It does not matter where he plays, he cannot make friends.  He was productive with the Bengals in limited action and even they didn’t want to keep him…The Bengals!  2) Johnson may actually still have some gas in the tank.  He got some action with Cedric Benson sidelined with injury down the stretch and actually produced.  We all know that the new sheriff in DC, Mike Shanahan can get the absolute most out of running backs, he got 1000 yards out of Olandis Gary!  Shanahan also likes to play the hot hand so if Portis has anything left (unlikely but possible) there could a dreaded timeshare situation in the capital next season which is a fate worse that death for fantasy football owners.  Both Johnson and Portis should be viewed as fantasy football flex players at best and not likely even that.

Thomas Jones, Kansas City Chiefs – Thomas Jones will be 32 this year and if we have an absolute truth in the NFL and in fantasy football it is that 32 year old running backs disappear off the face of the planet and it does not seem to matter how high a level they were playing at.  If you don’t believe me, see Eddie George, Shaun Alexander, Marshall Faulk, Curtis Martin, etc, etc, etc all fantasy studs and then….gone.  Watching Thomas Jones play last year, you might not have noticed his production diminishing but history is pretty clear on this one.  You might see Jones remain a factor in KC as a goal line back.  Marcus Allen and Emmit Smith extended their careers with a similar role change, but if you are looking for Jones to take over the starting role from Jamaal Charles and repeat his 1400 yard production, you will be sadly disappointed.  Charles should be downgraded slightly from a fantasy perspective because he will lose some work.  Shonn Green of the Jets should be moved into the top 10 fantasy football running backs with young legs great vision and that huge Jets offensive line to run behind, he is the big winner here.

Irrelevant Moves:

Chester Taylor to the Bears – Taylor will continue his role as player teacher, but now it will be for the Bears instead of the Vikings.  The Vikings will most likely sign a veteran back up to take Taylor’s role as sideline cheerleader.

Atwaan Randle El, Pittsburgh Steelers - Randle El was irrelevant in Pittsburgh the first time, he was irrelevant in D.C. and he will continue his perfect streak with his Pittsburgh stop part 2.

Antonio Byrant, Cincinnati Bengals – Bryant has had one great season in the last 9 and although he is might be in a better system in Cincy, his numbers will not change.  WR3  or flex player.

Stay Tuned for more off season activity…….

Kurt Warner Retires. How will it affect your fantasy team?

With the retirement of Kurt Warner, there has been a void created in the fantasy football universe. Kurt Warner was a legit fantasy stud and one that could be counted on to consistently slip into the third round of the fantasy draft.  As long he was surrounded by quality weapons and secured with good pocket protection, Warner continued to surprise fantasy owners and pundits year after year, game after game, with a level of play the helped many owners over the last few seasons ride deep into the playoffs.  The true surprise and absolute travesty is that even with his elite ability and elevated stats, every team he played for tried to give his job to someone else.  So the initial impact your fantasy team will take is that you will no longer be able to wait until the 10th quarterback selected in your draft to secure a top 3 guy, but the tremors do not stop there. 

The Cardinals have tried on a couple of occasions to give Warner’s position to the heir apparent Matt Leinart and they would have done just that if Leinart’s interceptions and bad decisions had not proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that he was not ready for the job.  Regardless of Leinart’s on field ineptness the Cardinal brass was still bent on him being the guy and it was not until Ken Wisenhunt took over the helm and stated without reservation that Kurt would lead this team, that the Cardinals started to produce for their fantasy owners.  However, because of the insistence on Leinart we did, as a fantasy industry, get a good look at the future and it spells a diminishment in the production of the red bird supporting cast.  

I am not going to say that the Matt Leinart is going to a worthless fantasy quarterback. It is my guess that his extended time with a clipboard and opportunity to learn from a veteran who is notorious for being generous with his knowledge and wisdom has allowed Matt to improve on the things that led to his removal, reading defenses, decision making and patience.  I am going to say that even an improved Matt Leinart, is not Kurt Warner.  

This will have a trickle down effect across the entire team.  The value of Larry Fitzgerald will slip slightly, although Fitzy was Leinart’s favorite target when on the field so Larry should still be a top 8 wide out.  The impact of Anquan Boldin will be greatly reduced.  Boldin has been almost invisible in the majority of Leinart starts.  The greatest impact however will be in the running game.  Beanie Wells showed some flashes of greatness as his rookie year wore on.  The loss of Warner will have an immediate impact on the win/loss column for the Cardinals because Kurt was the unquestioned leader of this team, Leinart is not.  If the Cardinals trail in more games than not, the running game will be completely ineffective, leaving Beanie wells where Edgrerrin James was, 65 yards a game, no touchdowns. 

Although I am not saying dismiss Leinart or the Cardinals in your fantasy draft next year, I am saying tread lightly.  As the second installment of the Matt Leinart era in Arizona begins again, the hopes of Cardinal fantasy owners everywhere is dependant on Matt Leinart’s maturation, an assumption of which there is no evidence whatsoever.

I got Brandon Marshalled!!!!!

Really?!?!?!?!? 21 receptions, over 200 yards receiving, a touchdown!!!????? All you he has been bopping along at about 75 yards and a TD every other game so you could safely assume that even if he goes off, you can expect 110 and a TD but over 40 FANTASY POINTS?! REALLY?

It is so easy to not get 40 points, there are countless ways to not get 40+ points, but not Brandon, punt the ball away at practice, I won’t play for the Broncos Marshall has to miss them all. You won’t play for the Broncos? 200+ receiving yards constitutes playing to me.

My whole fantasy football season is ended in the blink of an eye by Brandon “f-ing” Marshall!!!!