Top Targets for 2010 Week 4 (Free Agents Dummy!)

Head Smackers

Ken Darby, RB, St. Louis Rams: This is not really a head smacker for a couple of reasons, first because Steven Jackson will probably play and second, even if he doesn’t Darby will not be able to jump into Jackson’s role without missing a beat.  So, only a head smacker if you have Steven Jackson already and have room for a stash.

Willis McGahee, RB, Baltimore Ravens: Harbaugh has always been a “running back with the hot hand” coach, that is how Ray Rice got the job in the first place.  If Rice misses time and McGahee looks good, he could keep the rock for an extended period of time.

Kevin Walter, WR, Houston Texans: We had Walter as a pick up even when Andre Johnson was healthy, with Johnson nicked up, Walter has to get a bump.

Peyton Hillis, RB, Cleveland Browns: We had Hillis as a hail mary after week one, apparently he did not want to let us down.  He is the decided goal line vulture and making the most of every opportunity.  He will not put up week 3 numbers every week but will contribute.

Roy Williams, WR, Dallas Cowboys: I hate having Williams on this list because it looks like we are just chasing a big week, but there is reason for his success.  He has skills but the WR core is crowded in Dallas.  Dez Bryant looks to be hurt and might miss time, if he does and Austin continues to take the doubles, Williams could continue to produce. 

Not So Obvious

Donald Brown, RB, Indianapolis Colts: Addai gets hurt, we know this. Addai is listed as questionable. Brown is a good back with good hands in an offense that scores and uses the running back in the run game and the pass game, need I continue?

Kevin Smith, RB, Detroit Lions:  Jahvid Best is suffering from turf toe and if we learned anything from Deon Sanders besides the new word “shibbacle” it is that turf toe can end your career. It probably won’t end Best’s but he could miss some time. Smith is coming back from an ACL injury but he is still a better option than Morris if Best can’t go.

Ryan Torain, RB, Washington Redskins:  I loved Torain in Denver before he got hurt and I still think he can play.  Portis is due for an injury and even if he stays healthy, there is nothing saying Shanahan will not just switch for the sake of switching.

Sam Bradford, QB, St. Louis Rams: Bradford is not going to put up Peyton Manning numbers for you but, he has looked very steady so far and will continue to move the ball through the air.  He has developed some chemistry with Mark Clayton and is a safe bet for your bye week or as a QB2 in a 2 QB league.  No, I am not kidding!

Hail Mary

LeGarrette Blount, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers:  Cadillac Williams has just 139 yards for the season. Now I understand that the Bucs have had a couple of tough matchups but Blount had an average of almost 5 yards per carry score against the Steelers. If Cadillac continues to try to lose his job, Blount might just catch it and since the Bucs are heading into a bye week, you should be able to grab him even in deep leagues.

Maurice Morris, RB, Detroit Lions: I know I listed Kevin Smith as a pick up ( I can read)  but he is coming back from an ACL and if he has a set back and all of the stuff I said about turf toe is still possible, Maurice will be the man. Remember, I starting running back still has value, even on the Lions.

Anyone in a Denver Uniform with a WR number:  One of them is going to have a big week every week, the question is who? This week, my guess is Jabbar Gaffney.  He is the only one left who has not really had a big week yet.  Straight up guess.

Pretzel’s Picks Week 3

Cincinnati Bengals by 3 at the Carolina Panthers

The Bengals beat a beat the Ravens last week with a strong defensive output.  The Panthers are 0-2 with  -26 net points and a rookie QB having his first NFL start.  This should be a no problem for the Bengals.  Cincinnati take this one by 10 and CedBen gets back on track.

Minnesota Vikings by 11 at home over the Detroit Lions

The Vikings, with the exception of Adrian Peterson, have looked awful so far this season yet are favored by a ton over a Lions team that have lost their games by a total 8 points.   I expect AD to have a huge game against the lowly Lions but 11 points are ridiculous considering how awful the Vikings/Favre has played.  For my upset pick of the week I will take the Lions over the Vikings by a field goal.

Houston Texans by 2.5 at home over the Dallas Cowboys

After dominating the Colts in Week 1 the Cowboys squeaked by the Redskins last week and showed that the Texans can win on ground or through the air.  Dallas is a team in trouble.  It is difficult to win putting up 13 points a game and they definitely won’t this week against the high powered Texans offense.  Romo is going to be running for his life this week as the Cowboys go to 0-3.  Houston by 10.

Philadelphia Eagles by 2.5 at the Jacksonville Jaguars

The Eagles look to have a strong running game always have 2 runningbacks on the field at the same time.  Last week their passing game showed too.  The Jaguars looked strong against the Broncos in Week 1 and then came crashing down last week when they were destroyed by the Chargers.  This week MJD gets no room to run and the Eagles crush the Jags.  Philly by 2 touchdowns.

Eliminator

For my eliminator I will take the Baltimore Ravens over the terrible Cleveland Browns. 

Beware the “Buy Low” (it could be a “buy no”)

Every season there are players who are ranked highly in the preseason, drafted early and start slow out of the gate. These are players that become prime “buy low” candidates for the active fantasy owner. In a lot of cases, owners of these players get happy feet in the pocket and want to move the under producers even if they only  get 50 cents on the dollar or whatever they can get just to get some production. In many cases, the “buy low” can be a great score but sometimes, the buy low should actually be a “buy not at all”, this is especially true for running backs.

There are no steadfast rules that will help you discern which is a great buy low bargain and which is a dud in waiting. But as we know history often repeats itself, so here are a few cautionary tales that might help you look for signs.

Jamal Lewis: in 2003 Lewis carried the ball 387 times for 2066 yards and 14 touchdowns making him a hall of fame fantasy stud. The problem is he never got close to that again. He averaged about 900 yards and about 5 touchdowns per season for the rest of his career. He was a prime buy low after weeks 3 in the 2 years immediately following his big season but the price tag on him even when he was not producing was so high that you would have had to trade way too much to get him.

Ladanian Tomlinson: In 2006 Tomlinson went for 1815 yards and 28 touchdowns! And he has declined steadily every season since. Even going into the 4th week of last season, the residual value of Tomlinson was high enough that owners still wanted a ransom for him even though he was getting out-produced by almost everyone you would have had to trade to get him.

Larry Johnson: Johnson totaled more than 750 carries between 2005 and 2006 and part of that he was a back up. He put up over 1700 yards both seasons and was one of the fantasy elites. In 2007 he was a top 5 fantasy pick and over the first part of the season, a prime buy low candidate, but his 15 minutes was up. Johnson has never topped 900 yards since and topped 600 only once.

Shaun Alexander: Shaun’s production improved steadily from 2001 through 2005 in which he went off amassing 1880 and 27 touchdowns. Alexander didn’t sniff 800 yards again and never topped 7 touchdowns and was out of football in short order.

The lesson here is that sometimes when a player’s production drops off it is not a temporary dip, it could mean they are finished and no one told them, or you. All of the players listed above were all world and then very quickly…nothing. However, in all of the cases above, in order to trade for these players, even in the years they were in decline, their reputation alone, held their value so high that you would have had to mortgage your team to get them and in every instance, it would have been a mistake.

This season there are several running backs who appear to be spectacular buy candidates but the question is, are they buy low, or buy no??

Michael Turner, Alanta Falcons: Turner whole fantasy career has been built on a couple of very good relief innings for Ladanian Tomlinson and a 2008 season in which he put up over 1800 yards on 375 carries. Turner could be had at a little less than draft value right now, but he is still riding that 2008 rep so he would be expensive and I have not found a single instance where a running back who came back after a decline which followed a season with more than 375 carries. Also, Mike is already nursing a groin pull, the type of injury that can linger for a long time. Turner could be the exception to the 375 carry rule, but I would not wager my whole team on that.

Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars: MJD has started off slowly in great part because he plays for a team that is going through an identity crisis right now. The Jags seemed to forget that their best chance to win is by getting the ball in MJD’s hands as often as possible in any way possible. This should work itself out. Maurice is, young, strong, driven and not an injury risk. If you can get him for anything less that his draft value, he is most likely worth it.

DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers: Williams is a young strong runner but he does not control his own destiny right now. Carolina has a terrible offense, they have chaos at quarterback and just like last year, DeAngelo will be trading snaps with Jonathan Stewart. Three strikes is too many for me to take a big chance on.

Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens: Ray Rice was a guy who became a star last season based on huge total yardage and a lot of that came through the air. This season, the Ravens are having a tough time moving the ball and they have also added Anquan Boldin and TJ Houshmandzadeh. Both of these new weapons want the ball and are not afraid to run short routes across the middle which means many of those short dumps to Ray Rice from last year are not going to Ray Rice this year. Rice is a fine running back who has youth and strength on his side, but he was probably over valued and is probably not worth what owners are going to want for him in a trade.

Top Targets for 2010 Week 3 (Free Agents Dummy!)

Well the NFL has come back to earth a little this week.  Performers are starting to perform and winning teams are starting to win and of course people are getting injured.  This leads to some obvious head smackers.

Head Smackers:

Michael Vick, QB, Philadelphia Eagles: If you are in league that waited to see which Mike Vick would show up this week, the wait is over, it looks to be the same guy that made defenses look stupid in 2003-2005.  In addition, Andy Reid has said that Vick is the guy since he is “playing out of his mind”.  If he is available and you need QB help, he is your guy. Now make sure you temper your expectations of production a little bit because the defense was not expecting Vick in week 1 and week 2 was against the Lions. He is not going to produce every week like he has in the last two but he is still the best free agent QB out there.

Jason Snelling, RB, Atlanta Falcons: Snelling is only a head smacker if you have Michael Turner on your team.  Turner is supposed to be back for week 3 after a minor groin pull but anyone who has pulled a groin knows that it is never that minor.  Turner missed most of last season with injury and he is already missing time this year.  He would be a decent pick up for anyone since Turner will most likely miss time throughout the year but if you are a Turner owner, he should be your first option on the wire this week.

Mike Tolbert, RB, San Diego Chargers: Ryan Matthews is still the stud in San Diego but it appears that Tolbert is going to vulture some goal line reps and like the Snelling/Turner advice, you should own Tolbert if you own Matthews.  I am always a proponent of handcuffing your studs but in this case it is mandatory since since Tolbert has already shown he can produce if given that rock and Matthews has already missed reps due to injury.  If you don’t own Ryan Matthews Tolbert is still a decent stash if you have room on your roster for an “if come”.

Not So Obvious:

Mark Sanchez, QB, New York Jets: I have been high on the Jets in general and Sanchez specifically since the start of training camp.  Now don’t let me fool you, I was as skeptical as anyone after his performance in week 1 but I think the Sanchez we saw this week was the real Mark Sanchez.  I look for him to be solid all season, as a matter of fact, I just traded for him in my own league (thanks Kevin Kolb for putting in a position that I had to scramble already).

Demaryius Thomas, WR, Denver Broncos: Thomas was all the buzz going into camp, McDaniels actually compared him (favorably) to Brandon Marshall during the preseason.  After missing week one the jury was out but he stepped up in week 2 and showed he has the goods.   If you are looking for a WR2 or bye week help, Thomas is a great grab.

Kevin Walter, WR, Houston Texans: Walter looked spectacular in week 2 but remember, all that glitters is not necessarily gold.  Don’t forget that Andre Johnson is the guy and will be the guy in Houston, but it looks like the Texans offense is going to put up some real numbers this season and Walter looks to be a favorite red zone target.  Don’t look for him to catch 11 balls every week, but he should catch a TD most weeks.

Dustin Keller, TE, New York Jets: As I have said before, I am high on the Jets and Keller is a good choice at TE even if the Jets don’t do as well as everyone expects.  Keller is one of those Dallas Clark, Tony Gonzalez type of tight ends who run a lot of WR routes so he will put up decent numbers and always be a red zone threat.  If you need TE help, he is a great option.

Hail Marys:

Mario Manningham,WR, New York Giants: I almost never recommend a WR3 as a pick up in fantasy football under any circumstance but Eli seems bend on moving the ball around and the G-Men are going with a lot of 3 receiver sets.  Steve Smith and Hakeems Nicks are getting the coverage allowing Manningham to go 4 for 75 in week 1 and  4 for  85 and a touchdown in week 2.  Not bad for a scrud!
Josh Freeman, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Freeman is very quietly putting up a very nice fantasy season.  He is not flashy but he puts up adequate passing numbers around 180yds/week, he is averaging 2 TDs per week and he doesn’t make mistakes with the football.  He also has the added bonus of being able to run when he has to, you can count on about 40 yards a game on the ground which is a great bonus for a QB.  Great bye week option if you need one.