Using Tweets to Predict Fantasy Production

In this new world of fantasy football that has banished the white board to the closet under the stairs, made magazines obsolete and allows you to set up news alerts for every player on your team, it is hard to believe that you can get even closer to the daily behavior of NFL players.  But this season twitter will allow you to be closer to Chad Ocho Cinco that even his closest friends.

Twitter gives a whole new insight into the day to day comings and goings of your favorite players.  Since the vast majority of players have public twitter feeds and love to tweet every aspect of their lives, you get to take a look at the real person.  This of course answers the real questions of player work ethic, behavioral problems and friendships.  You find out if the player is a gym rat (good), club hopper (bad), spends most weekends at his grandma’s (good) or spends every weekend in Vegas (bad).  If you are not on twitter yet, open an account today, just so you can spy on your prospective fantasy studs.

Justin Forsett, RB Seattle Seahawks:

• Up early headed to Stockton for Lavelle Hawkins football camp if your out that way come out 9:35 AM Jul 17th via mobile web
• The verse for tonight is 1 Corinthians 6:18 Goodnight & God Bless!! 1:06 AM Jul 17th via mobile web
  Having lunch watching Lean on Me its a classic 1:23 PM Jul 14th via we
• Good pool workout this morning got to rest up for this Pilates class later today 11:46 AM Jul 14th via API The verse for tonight is Romans 4:17 Goodnight & God Bless!! 11:19 PM Jul 13th via web

Justin does nothing but watch movies, workout and read the bible! This is a guy you want on your team. He is not going get caught in a meth lab and he will not show up to camp out of shape!

Aaron Rodgers, QB Green Bay Packers:

• Another great day in Tahoe. Hoping to shoot a score around 75 tomorrow. I’ll let u all know how it goes Friday, July 16, 2010 12:10:07 AM via Twitterrific
• I’m in Tahoe loving Edgewood and seeing some good friends. Best week of the summer Wednesday, July 14, 2010 11:13:00 PM via Twitterrific
• Excited about the best week of the offseason in beautiful tahoe. If ur a betting person it’s probably not a safe bet to put $ on me golfing Tuesday, July 13, 2010 4:18:03 PM via Twitterrific
• At the store n the lady in front of me just told on the lady at the front of the line who was trying to shoplift! They got her Tuesday, July 13, 2010 1:07:20 PM via Twitterrific
• @PURPLEDRANK128 what’s up beach bum. See u up there Tuesday, July 13, 2010 1:20:05 AM via Twitterrific in reply to PURPLEDRANK128
• @scoobydiesel much appreciated. Loved my time at PV and BC so much Monday, July 12, 2010 6:16:25 PM via Twitterrific in reply to scoobydiesel
• @MrMichael_Smith I could honestly care less about rankings and top 5′s n all that. I just retweet my fans when they say something funny Monday, July 12, 2010 5:20:21 PM via Twitterrific in reply to MrMichael_Smith
• RT @TrippHardin @AaronRodgers12 Hasselbeck isnt a top 5 analyst for ESPN….and they only have 3.(hahahahahaha) Monday, July 12, 2010 3:46:31 PM via Twitterrific

Aaron spends his time quoting movies, talking about the beach and junk food and retweeting trash talk from his followers.  Not one mention of the gym or off season work outs.  He will most likely not violate the NFL ethics rules, but he will be the kind of guys that team mates don’t really like, kind of like Barry Zito.  He is on a good team and he is fairly talented so he will be productive but he will not last forever on the Packers. (this is of course just me reading tea leaves via tweets.)

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB Jacksonville Jaguars:

• RT @JohnVetsch: @Jones_Drew32 I did a mock draft yesterday and people trippin when I took u 1 over AP and CJ. (cont) http://tl.gd/2k8r4n     about 8 hours ago  via UberTwitter
• @Treenie5 I don’t do clubs anymore I got kids now… Lol but the a shooting now man… about 8 hours ago via UberTwitter in reply to Treenie5
• Done wit my workout… Beast as usual… Its great when u can workout wit the best…. Greatness here I come!!!!! about 9 hours ago via UberTwitter
• Rise and grind… Another day another chance to become great….. Use ur time wisely tweeps. about 14 hours ago via UberTwitter
• @MIKESPN lebron whoop both wade and bosh tho Sunday, July 18, 2010 4:55:33 PM via UberTwitter in reply to MIKESPN
• RT @Fantasy_Guru: @Jones_Drew32 You won’t find our mag this year; after you graced the cover in ’09 and did (cont) http://tl.gd/2jml3e Sunday, July 18, 2010 4:51:48 PM via UberTwitter
• College football is about to start and I think my bruins are gonna do work this year…. UCLA is where its at (cont) http://tl.gd/2jlt83 Sunday, July 18, 2010 3:15:11 PM via UberTwitter
• @iNkEdUp03 man grinding like last year getting reggie for the season to begin… How about u? Sunday, July 18, 2010 3:11:39 PM via UberTwitter in reply to iNkEdUp03
• I’m on my way to winn dixie to check out their magazine section so I can prepare myself for the big XM draft on july 21st…. teamgreatness Sunday, July 18, 2010 3:05:41 PM via UberTwitter
• RT @Donny_Moore: Over last 4 seasons, the Jaguars rushing offense and @Jones_Drew32 are one of only 2 teams with (cont) http://tl.gd/2jlpt6 Sunday, July 18, 2010 3:03:39 PM via UberTwitter
• RT @pammyb29: @Jones_Drew32 http://bit.ly/cIJ5Ls My 48 yr old cyclist brother in law died of bowel cancer. Thanks Saturday, July 17, 2010 6:31:25 PM via UberTwitter
• Good morning tweeps what do u have on ur agenda today Saturday, July 17, 2010 11:33:26 AM via UberTwitter
• Up and at em Saturday, July 17, 2010 11:27:37 AM via UberTwitter
• @chitownforte22 where r u at brother Saturday, July 17, 2010 12:59:52 AM via UberTwitter in reply to chitownforte22
• RT @ITSNEB: @Jones_Drew32 u going to have time to murk on black ops while u scoring 30 tds?<— always got time Friday, July 16, 2010 3:40:31 PM via UberTwitter
• RT @nate_robinson: @Jones_Drew32 good luck this season bro…<—- thanks bruh u were balling this year.. I’m (cont) http://tl.gd/2i9dsd Friday, July 16, 2010 3:29:13 PM via UberTwitter
• RT @imJmi: just scored a touchdown with this one! NFL Pro Bowler and Jacksonville’s starting RB @Jones_Drew32 (cont) http://tl.gd/2i9ck3 Friday, July 16, 2010 3:25:24 PM via UberTwitter
• RT @ChrisB357: hey @Jones_Drew32 wanna help with a noble cause? tweetout for my twin 3yr olds with SMA www.byrdsforacure.org Friday, July 16, 2010 3:21:45 PM via UberTwitter
• Todays workout was a beast…. Sled pulls and conditioning then to the weight room for a monster leg workout. (cont) http://tl.gd/2i9b1v Friday, July 16, 2010 3:21:00 PM via UberTwitter
• RT @MsTerryMcMillan: Black people kill each other more than white people do. Who’s racist? Friday, July 16, 2010 12:20:47 PM via UberTwitter
• Good night tweeps 9:45 PM Jul 15th via UberTwitter
• @MikeSimsWalker my man owns bella limo 8:51 PM Jul 15th via UberTwitter in reply to MikeSimsWalker
• LA its been great now time to get back to grind mode. South florida hear I come 11:07 AM Jul 15th via UberTwitter

MJD is a superstud.  He gauges his worth by how hard his workouts are.  He goes to bed early.  He has a lust for greatness seen in few players.  His only short coming is his choice in BFFs (Mike Sims-Walker the same guy that missed a game last year for  a booty call).

Chris Johnson is Not the #1 Pick for 2010 Fantasy Football

When we look back at the 2009 fantasy football season one thing stands out above the rest, Chris Johnson had over 2500 total yards and 16 total TD. This automatically makes him the number one pick in 2010 right? I am here to tell you no. He should be your number 3 pick. If we take a look at week 2 of the 2009 season, Chris Johnson became the first player in NFL history to record a 90-plus yard rushing touchdown, 50-plus yard rushing touchdown, and 60-plus yard receiving touchdown in one game. Seven of Johnson’s touchdowns were for 50+yards and 10 were for 25+ yards. If you are sitting there first overall and expecting these types of results again you will be very disappointed with your pick.

But let’s not just focus on last year’s numbers for Johnson, let’s look at what history has taught us. Five other players have rushed for over 2000 yards in a season and their follow up year was nowhere close to as spectacular. OJ Simpson had 1,125 yards and 3 touchdowns, Eric Dickerson went for 1,234 and 12 touchdowns and Barry Sanders (the best yardage season following 2k) almost cracked 1500 at 1491 yards and only 4 touchdowns. The other 2 players to run for 2000 yards in a season failed to play the entire next season with Jamal Lewis playing 12 games for 1,006 yards and 7 touchdowns, and Terrell Davis only able to muster 4 games for 211 yards and 2 touchdowns. If we combine these stats for the best possible season you are still looking at losing 500+ yards and at least 2 touchdowns, meaning your fantasy team loses 70+ points on the season from this one player, not a good way to start your draft.

Let’s also look at your 2 better options for drafting first over all. Adrian Peterson was considered by most to have a down year last year with 1,383 yards and 18 touchdowns. 18 Touchdowns and a down year!?!? With Chester Taylor gone, AD will get more of the carries, all the goal line carries and plays behind one of the better lines in football. Whether Favre is back or not look for Minnesota to rely more and more on the running game and for Peterson to produce big for your team. Maurice Jones-Drew has a similar situation in Jacksonville. MJD has had to share the load up until last year and still produced 9+ touchdowns every year. In his first full year as a starter MJD over 1750 total yards (in a down receiving year) and 16 total touchdowns; with no competition for MJD and a struggling passing game look for MJD to get more of the workload this season putting him in a position to better last year’s numbers and be your number 2 runningback in Fantasy Football for 2010.

Finally we add to all this a holdout for a new contract that looks to be in a stalemate at this point in time and if no movement is made promises to last into the season as Johnson “Can’t play for $550,000.” CJ is holding out for a well deserved raise and I feel the Titans should give him what is coming to him. With Players like CJ Spiller and Jahvid Best looking to make more than Johnson and have never played a down in the NFL I feel for him and agree with his stance but don’t let that pull at your heart strings on Draft Day. Make the smart decision and choose AD or MJD. Put your team in the best position to win.