Pretzel’s Picks Week 9

Jacksonville Jaguars by 6.5 at home over the Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City has looked awful in every game but one this year.  Their only win came against the Redskins.  You remember them right? They let the Lions win their first game in the last 2 years.  Jaguars bounce back after being embarrassed last week and take this one by a couple of touchdowns.

San Francisco 49ers by 4 at home over the Tennessee Titans

After a good showing last week in a tough loss against the unbeaten Colts the Niners find themselves up against the 1-6 Titans.  Last week the Titans looked good against the Jags.  This is not last week or the Jaguars.  Singletary will find a way to stop Chris Johnson.  San Fran takes this one by a touchdown

Philadelphia Eagles by 3 at home over the Dallas Cowboys

It is tight up top in the NFC East with these 2 teams tied for first.  In a tough divisional match up I have to give the nod to the home team.  Look for McNabb and the Eagles air attack to have a big game this Sunday as they take it by 10.

Indianapolis Colts by 8.5 at home over the Houston Texans

In my upset of the week I am taking the Texans over the Colts.  Last week the Texans showed that as long as they can hang on to the ball their running game works which opens the door for the passing game.  The Colts defense is a just a shell of what it is with Bob Sanders in the game, with him gone for the season the Texans offense should have a field day.  Texans squeak out a win and end Indy’s streak.

Eliminator

For my eliminator pick I am taking the Seattle Seahawks over the Detroit Lions.  The passing game will be huge against the Lions awful pass defense.

To Sit or Start Your Studs??? This is the Question

Every fantasy owner goes through this dilemma on a weekly basis. This question becomes especially stressful when you have studs who are under performing or performing inconsistently. Matt Forte, Steve Slaton, Ladanian Tomlinson, Anquan Boldin even Steven Jackson, all studs who you spent early picks on and now every week they give you sleep loss and plenty of it.

The question is, if you are sitting on one of these pro bowlers and they happen to have a terrible match up, or they have not yet performed up to expectations, do you sit them and play someone unproven in their place? The answer to this conundrum seems very hazy with no clear answer…on the surface. If you play them and they do nothing, frustration builds. If you don’t play them and they explode for 25 points, you are an idiot. What do you do?

The answer to this “question for the ages” is actually more simple than it seems, it comes down to simple math. If you sit your stud, you need to have 2 things fall into place in order for you to not feel stupid. Your stud has to lay and egg, a big one and what ever marginal player you started in their place, has to come up big. In case you are a little slow, these two events happening at the same time are not as easy as it sounds. The reason you drafted Steven Jackson when you did is because (when healthy) he performs more often than he doesn’t and the reason you didn’t draft Austin Collie at all is because he is a complete unknown. If you start your stud only one thing needs to happen for you to feel validated, your stud needs to be his studly self, if he does..you are golden!

Here is meat of it. If you play your Matt Forte and he does nothing, you can blame it on Matt Forte. If you play Mike Wallace and he catches 2 balls for 18 yards while you sat Anquan Boldin who caught 6 balls for 118 yards and 2 touchdowns, you have no one to blame but yourself.

Don’t be a dummy, start your studs!

Top Targets For Week 9 (free Agents Dummy)

There are some good buys out there this week  Get to work

Ryan Moats, Houston- Moats went crazy last weekend and although Kubiak willnot commit to an answer when pressed on who will start in week 9, it will be tough to sit Moats after his 126 yards and 3 TD performance.  This is especially true considering Slaton is have a hard time shaking his case of fumblitis.  Head Smacker

LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia-  If you own Brian Westbrook, you should have drafted McCoy, but is the off chance that you did, get him.  Westbrook is going to continue to drive you crazy because he is one of the guys who is always hurt but usually plays so the only thing you can count on him for is to make you nuts. Head Smacker

Vince Young, Tennessee- Vince is back from the depths of career suicide and is doing exactly what he does…put up very mediocre fantasy numbers.  He is great with his legs though so if you play in a league that gives extra points for rushing touchdowns, he might be a decent bye week option.  Hail Mary

Alex Smith, San Francisco-  Smith is looking a lot more like the first round pick he was supposed to be coming into the league.  Notice that I did not say he is looking like the first overall pick that he was, because he is not looking like that.  He is keeping the offense moving though, something that Shaun Hill was unable to do.  Also, with the return of Frank Gore, the passing game is opening up a little but which will help.  Not So Obvious

Michael Crabtree, San Francisco-  Although I usually stay clear of rookie wide outs, especially ones who hold out for half the season, Crabtree looks good.  He is still not consistant enough to be a weekly play but might be worth a stash if you are in a keeper league that forces you to keep a certain number of players.  Not So Obvious

Kevin Walter, Houston- The loss of Owen Daniels, although not great for Matt Schaub owners is very good for Walter.  He should be the teams third option now after the omnipotent Andre Johnson and whomever is in the backfield. Not So Obvious

Malcolm Floyd, San Diego- Although Floyd had already taken his starting job, the release of Chris Chambers just cements it.   Malcolm will now get more looks in a pass heavy offense that scores points…works for me.  Not So Obvious