Top Target for Week 13 (free agents dummy)

Fred Jackson, Buffalo – I had Fred as a Head Smacker last week too but now it is official.  He had 15 carries to Lynch’s 3.  it looks like the new coach likes his burst better than Marshawn’s brawn.  Head Smacker

Jason Avant, Philadelphia - DeSean Jackson was knocked out of the game yesterday with a concussion, Avant picked up the slack.  If Jackson is out next week, Avant is a great flex option. Head Smacker

Donnie Avery, St. Louis-  The Rams seem to be moving the ball a little bit, if this continues Avery should continue to be serviceable as he has been the last few weeks.  Hail Mary

Jerious Norwood, Atlanta – Norwood had a great game after Turner re-injured his ankle.  Look for Norwood to get an increased workload if Turner cannot go. Not so Obvious

Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay- The kid has put up numbers ever game he has played, it is time to start believing. Not So Obvious

Larry Johnson, Cincinnati- Although Bernard Scott had a decent game last weekend, it looks like the Bengals are going to use Grandmama more often if Benson still can’t go.  Not So Obvious

Chris Chambers, Kansas City-  17 catches since joining the team.  He is looking like a primary target for Cassel and they have developed some quick chemistry.  Not So Obvious

**********Playing for Week 16*************

In case you are locked into the playoffs already and are looking for a sleeper to stash away, here are a couple of Hail Marys for you.

Laverneus Coles, Cincinnati- Coles is available in most leagues and the Bengals have the terrible Chiefs pass defense on week 16.  Since the Bengals will have a playoff spot locked up by then, they might be resting Ocho Cinco making Coles a more active target.

Malcolm Floyd, San Diego- Floyd is definitely available, the Chargers love to throw and they are playing the Titans who have one of the most porous pass defenses in the league.

Playing for Week 16 – This is what it is all about!

At this point in the season it has become very clear who will be playing for the hardware and who in your league will be making excuses.  If you are one of the few that have a legitimate shot at the big dance, good work.  if you are one of the also rans sitting in the corner sobbing and licking your wounds…better luck next year, try not drafting a defense with your third pick! 

In most leagues, the championship game is played on week 16.  This is to prevent the elite fantasy teams from being left with no one to play in the championship game while the Colts sit Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne and every other starter on their team to get ready for the NFL playoffs.  This is the only week you should be thinking about right now.  The fantasy playoffs are going to play out the way they play out, but the worst possible scenario is to have the planets align allowing you to get to the finals only to score 45 points because your marquis players have either been nicked up through out the year and are missing time, or being rested just to be safe. 

Here is the plan that I have put together using lessons learned from my own beats!  First step is to look at the schedule.  Look for good teams who are playing opponents with weakest defenses in the league.  At this point in the season you can be pretty safe in assuming that if a team is ranked 28th against the pass, they are horrible and will most likely give up big yardage to both QBs and WRs in week 16.  No one is 28th against the pass in week 13 by accident, it means they are terrible.  Next step is to look for the secondary receivers on these good teams playing bad defenses. (this applies to bad run defenses and secondary RBs on good teams as well, but good back up RBs are harder to come by and they are a bigger gamble because they may not see the field if the starter is healthy).  A perfect example of the type of player you should be looking for is Malcolm Floyd of the San Diego Chargers.   Floyd is available in more than 90% of ESPN fantasy leagues right now (this is critical, it is tough to pick up a player who is not available), he plays for a good team that loves to pass the football and most importantly, the Chargers are playing the Tennessee Titans who happen to be the 31st ranked defense against the pass!  The only way this could be better is if Vincent Jackson were available, which he is not!

So now you know who to look for, who do you get rid of?  This one is easy.  The first move is look at your kicker situation.  If you are still carrying more than one kicker, smack yourself and then drop one.  Next is defense.  Carrying a second defense is not as ridiculous as carrying a second kicker but it is unnecessary.  By now you know which defense averages the most points per game, just commit to one and be done.  If you have been following our advice here or on Fantasy Draft Master and you do not have an extra kicker or defense, good for you, but you still need to drop someone.  Your last option is to release your back up quarterback.  This is a risky move since it leaves you naked in the event of a major injury to your stud QB in week 15 but, if your QB goes down in week 15 your back up QB is probably not going to save your season anymore than someone you can snag off the waiver wire.  On the flip side however, having Laverneus Coles go off for 110 and a TD against the 28th ranked Chiefs defense might be the difference between being the champion and being the first loser.

So, to recap:

1. Look for good teams playing weak defenses on week 16
2. Grab as many play makers as you can get from those good teams
3. Drop all non-critical players on your team to make as much room as possible.  First, back up kickers, then defensive teams and last, back up QBs

Remember the reason I know this is not because I am some kind of fantasy football savant, it is because I have made every mistake in the book!

See you on the field!

Pretzel’s Picks Week 12

Indianapolis Colts by 3.5 at the Houston Texans

The Texans are all over the place and the Colts continue to produce every week.  Colts take this one by a touchdown.

Minnesota Vikings by 10.5 at home over the Chicago Bears

Minnesota looked awesome last week and will again this week.  Chicago just can’t seem to figure it out.  The Vikings front 4 are going to give Cutler fits all day long.  Vikings by 2 touchdowns

Miami Dolphins by 3 at the Buffalo Bills

The Dolphins pulled one out last week against the Panthers but won’t have that luck again this week.  TO finally got into a game last week and I expect the Bills to lean on that this week and take this game in a close one at home.

Seattle Seahawks by 4 at the St. Louis Rams

Both these teams looked bad last week but the Cardinals only needed half a game to beat the Rams and then put it on cruise for the second.  The Seahawks will need all 60 minutes but still take this one by a touchdown.

Eliminator

For the Eliminator take the Bengals over the Browns.  After a surprising loss last week the Bengals will take use the Browns to show they are still number one in that division.

Top Targets For Week 12 (free Agents Dummy)

Kyle Boller, St. Louis - Boller looked decent when he filled in for Bulger earlier in the year and the Rams have shown some life recently.  Still a long shot.  Hail Mary

Vince Young, Tennessee- Vince had some serious head problems in the offseason and he is still not putting up huge numbers but he has been consistent.  Young is more a value because of his legs, if your league give more points for rushing touchdowns, he might be worth a look if you are in real trouble.  Hail Mary

Brady Quinn, Cleveland- I know that everyone looks better than they are against the Lions but Quinn was a first round pick and has all the tools.  Maybe he finally has his head out of his ass. Hail Mary

Rock Cartwright, Washington- Rock is a third option on a team who’s first option is mediocre.  Rock is not going to save your season but if you need help at RB he might keep you afloat for a couple weeks. Not So Obvious

Fred Jackson, Buffalo – If you own Marshawn Lynch, you should already own Jackson but…. Lynch was carted off the field last Sunday and although they are saying  he is day to day, it looked much worse.  Head Smacker 

Bernard Scott, Cincinnati- 119 yards and  Benson still questionable, even with the signing of Larry Johnson Scott still looks like the guy as long as Benson is out.  Not So Obvious

Mohammed Massaquoi, Cleveland-  See above (Brady Quinn seems that he might have his head out of his ass).  If this is the case, Massaquoi will be productive if he can hold onto the ball.  Not So Obvious