Pretzel’s Picks Week 8

Upset Special Week

Baltimore Ravens by 3.5 at home over the Denver Broncos

This year the Broncos have played tough games and easy ones and every week the show up and silence doubters.  Every week we look for the wheels to come off and this team to fall apart.  Maybe it is time to start believing.  Broncos take this close one.

Tennessee Titans by 3 at home over the Jacksonville Jaguars

At 3-3 the Jaguars are infinitely better then the 0-6 Titans.  With Vince Young back at the helm for the Titans things are somehow about to get worse.  Jacksonville wins this one by a bunch.

Detroit Lions by 4 at home over the St. Louis Rams

I know the Rams are 0-7 this season but the Lions have only won 1 game since before their bye week in the 2007 season.  I think them being the favored over anyone at this point is a little optimistic.  St. Louis squeaks out their first victory on the road.

New York Giants by 1 at the Philadelphia Eagles

The Giants looked like gods until meeting the Saints 2 weeks ago when they got destroyed.  They lost again last week to the Cardinals.  With 2 bad showings in a row you have to start to wonder about how good they actually are.  Eagles win a close divisional game handing the Giants their 3 loss in a row.

Eliminator

After failing to correctly pick a close one last week, so we can use some lower end teams when they have good matchups I think I should go with a safe one this week.  I will take the Bears over the Browns.  The Browns are awful and continue to get rid of all talent from their team.  Bears shouldn’t have to do too much to win this one.

Top Targets For Week 8 (free Agents Dummy)

Once again a couple long shots have come through. This week, you have a opportunity to jump on some of the players I spoke about earlier but have now shown that they can produce.

Head Smackers-
Running Backs-
Ricky Williams, Miami- We talked about him before but in case there was any doubt..He went crazy this week with 3 tds. He has only missed double digit fantasy points one all year. He should be owned in all leagues but if he isn’t, head smacker.

Wide Receivers-
Miles Austin, Dallas- If there is a league out there that took a wait and see attitude with Austin, the time to hesitate is over. Miles has eclipsed Jason Witten as Romo’s goto guy and as made Roy Williams irrelevant.

Sidney Rice, Minnesota- At 6’4″ and over 200lbs, Rice has become a favorite target for Favre early and often. The only wide out on the Vikings who is not a fantasy value is the only “big name” Berrian.

Not So Obvious

Quarterbacks-
Alex Smith, San Francisco- Many thought that Smith earned the starting job in training camp but didn’t get it. There should be no more doubt. Smith looked very good taking over for the ineffective Shaun Hill and had instant chemistry with the born again Vernon Davis. Look for respectable but not transcendant numbers from Smith.

Running Backs-
Shonn Green, NY Jets- The only reason a guy who puts up 144 yards and 2 TDs is not a head smacker is because of the RB situation in New York. He will still not be the clear cut starter, but I said before that Ryan likes this kid alot. If you have room on your roster, get him.

Wide Receivers-
Hakeem Nicks, NY Giants- Nicks has looked very good since his return from injury and appears to be playing himself into a lot more work, much to the shagrin of Manningham and Smith.

Mike Wallace, Pittsburgh- I mentioned him a few weeks ago as a hail mary but he has put up double digit fantasy numbers 3 of the last 5 weeks and is a decent flew option if you are having WR trouble during bye weeks.

Hail Marys-

Wide Receivers-
Sam Aiken, New England- He is not seeing much action right now, but with the release of Joey Galloway and the injury to Julian Edelman, he is only a bad hit from being on the field a lot in a very potent offense.

Pretzel’s Picks Week 7

Indianapolis Colts by 14 at the St. Louis Rams

Ok here is the deal.  The Rams at 0-6 suck and the Colts at 6-0 look awesome.  The Rams’ net points are -115 through 6 weeks.  That is an average of almost a 20 point deficit per game.  Against a good team like the Colts 14 points should be a joke.  Take the Colts to cover and then some.

Pittsburgh Steelers by 5.5 at home over the Minnesota Vikings

In my upset of the week I take the Vikings on the road over the Pittsburgh Steelers.  The Vikings seem to always find a way to win.  They stretch their streak to 7 wins in this one.

New York Jets by 6 at the Oakland Raiders

The wheels look to be coming off in New York the past few weeks with 3 losses in a row but I am still picking them to win over the Raiders.  Maybe it is just a vendetta pick because the Raiders ruined my perfect week last week when they decided to show up last week against Eagles.  The Jets showed last week that they can still run the ball and that is definitely the weakness of the Raiders defence.  I look for the Jets to cover this week with a strong game on the ground.

New Orleans Saints by 6.5 at the Miami Dolphins

The Saints have shown a few times this year that they are dominant even against good teams.  This week is no different.  Regardless of whether they have trouble with the wildcat or not New Orleans are going to put up too many points for the Dolphins to keep pace.  Saints cover.

Eliminator

For my eliminator this week I am going to take the Carolina Panthers over the Buffalo Bills.  Since their bye week the Panthers are 2-0 and will continue the streak this week at home against the Bills.  The Bills are the league’s worst against the run so DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart should run wild this week.

Top Targets 2009 for Week 7 (Free agents Dummy!)

We have reached the point in the season where head smackers are no longer relevant. If any of the head smackers are still available in your league, you should be 6-0 and you would not need my help. So we are left with just the long shots.

Not So Obvious-
Running Backs-
Mike Bell, New Orleans- Although Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush get all the fanfare, Mike Bell is still getting the rock. Even though he is not the star Bell still got 15 carries next week even with everyone healthy. In addition, there were 3 rushing TDs scored and Pierre Thomas got none of them…but Bell did.

Wide Receivers-
Any Indianapolis Colts Receiver- I told you

Hakeem Nicks, NY Giants- The Giants are spreading the ball around and Nicks seems to be part of the fun finally. Good match up play against weak pass defenses but with Smith and Manningham also grabbing passes he is a tough play week in and week out.

Hail Marys (remember these are long shots, anybody can tell you to pick up Miles Austin after a 250 yd week)
Running Backs-
BenJarvus Green-Ellis, New England- With Sammy Morris getting knocked out of the game on the first play, the Pats are down to 2 running backs. Although Maroney got the carries last week, he has proven many times that he cannot keep this job. He has lost it to everyone, Morris, Taylor, Faulk and soon Green-Ellis. BenJarvus had 67 yards on just 7 attempts and had 2 catches out of the backfield. Look for an increased role down the stretch.

Jerious Norwood, Atlanta- I keep saying it and sooner or later it has to come true. Michael Turner carries a big load and those guys get hurt. It has to happen eventually.

Wide Receivers-
Sammie Stroughter, Tampa Bay- The 7th round pick for the Bucs is already leading the team in receiving and is also very active in the return game. If you are in a league that gives you return yardage or you are in a dynasty league and you want to take a big gamble, he might be worth a shot.

Mike Wallace, Pittburgh- I mentioned him earlier in the year and I am mentioning him again. The Steelers are having a harder and harder time running the ball behind an aging offensive line and Wallace is one of the 2 guys on the team who seems to be able to hold onto the ball. He will be looked to more often down the stretch.

Keenan Burton, St Louis- I know he is a Ram, but he has gone back to back 5 catch weeks and the Rams have actually been able to move the ball a little recently. (hey these are hail marys)