Not all that Glitters is Gold

There is an old axiom that states “not all that glitters is gold”.  This is true in life and it is especially true in fantasy football.  Week one was wrought with over performers that will have the trash sifters in your league foraging furiously.  One of the toughest challenges in fantasy football is to remember that you (and your players) are in it for the long haul and if you chase every rabbit, you will put yourself in a position that forces you to dump a proven player on your team because they are off to a slow start so that you can scoop up this weeks shiny new flash.  Don’t fall into the trap.

In the category of “fantasy fools gold” we should start with Devery Henderson of the New Orleans Saints.  Henderson amassed 103 yards on 5 receptions with a touchdown and had the 5^th highest production of all wide receivers.  Contrary to what the numbers say, Devery is the 5^th option on a Saints team that laid a record setting beat down on the hapless Detroit Lions.  Remember, not every team is the Lions.  The Saints will face a tough Philadelphia Eagles defense next week and Henderson should return to his standard 2 receptions for 35 yards and no touchdowns.  Fred Jackson of the Buffalo Bills is another player performing way over his head.  Jackson had a great game against the Patriots this past Sunday but he is ultimately a backup who happens to be capitalizing on the fact that Marshawn Lynch is suspended for 2 games.  Jackson should be productive for one more start but don’t sacrifice much to snatch up a player who only has one game left as the featured back.

The first week of football also had a disproportionately high number of underachievers who will make you look extremely foolish if give up on them. Andre Johnson of the Texans was blanketed by a surprising New York Jets defense and consequently looked very pedestrian with only 4 receptions for 35 yards and no touchdowns.  The Texans played Mike Tyson to the Jets Buster Douglas caught very off guard by the aggressive Jets pass rush, but Johnson should still be an every week starter on your team.  Matt Forte of the Bears was another highly touted fantasy stud who looked more like Clark Kent than Superman in week 1.  Forte’s anemic production was more a side effect of the poor play of Jay Cutler (really Jay, 4 picks?? You are making Josh McDaniels look like Stephen Hawking) than a reflection of Forte’s ability.  The Bears have a rough stretch coming up with the Steelers next followed by the Seahawks before they get their turn to wail on the Lions.  If Cutler continues to struggle, it could make the going pretty tough for Forte but he is too big a part of the Bears offense to not be started (he had 25 carries against the Packers this weekend, eventually a couple of those have to go for more that 1.8 yards).

Strong Plays for week 2:

Every player you have in a bright purple jersey.  The Vikings take on the Lions this weekend, so Peterson and Taylor should both have plenty of success at running back.  In addition, there will be enough balls for Berrian, Harvin and Shiancoe to make noise.  The Viking defense is a safe play against the rookie QB as well.

Terrell Owens, Buffalo Bills: Tony Romo torched the Bucs for 350+ yards last weekend.  Look for Edwards to do similar things and look for him to go to T.O. early and often.  Owens was not nearly as involved in the offense against the Patriots as he would like, I am sure he will make this known all week to everyone who will listen.  If history has shown us anything it is that the only way to make Terrell happy is to give him the ball!

Top Targets 2009 Week 1 (Free agents Dummy!)

In Case you are not familiar with my format, I will explain it…again.

There are 3 categories of free agents. The first is “Head Smackers”. This section talks about the players that are probably owned already but we list them anyway in case you are playing with a bunch of fools (and if you are playing in a league that had Chris Johnson undrafted..stick with us, you should win). The second is “Not So Obvious”. These are players that have a situational reason that they should have a productive week. Some will seem more obvious than others, for example, last season; we told you 3 weeks before anyone else that Ryan Torrain was a good pick up. We were correct too…until he suffered a season ending injury in his first game back, but not before he put up over a hundred yards and a TD! The last section is “Hail Marys”. This is the section where we play hunches. Last season we told you to pick up Darren Sproles in week 14 based on his stealing a couple of carries a week from LT. LT started playing less and less down the stretch and Sproles help a lot of people win fantasy playoff games.

QBs
Head Smackers:
Matt Ryan, Atlanta: Matty “ICE” was the breakout rookie star of last season. If you thought there was going to be a drop off or sophomore slump….think again. Matt has a new check down with a bunch of pro bowls on his resume in Tony Gonzalez and one of the best running game in the league to help him ease his burden.

Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle: Hasselbeck is bald and I don’t mean balding, I mean cue ball (I read that about him in a fantasy magazine once under “analysis” it still makes me laugh). Seriously though. He is healthy again and is in a throw first offense, he should be owned in all leagues.

Not So Obvious:
David Garrard, Jacksonville: Garrard was a fantasy sleeper a couple of years ago and then he fell asleep but he appears to be back in stride. He looked adequate against a decent Colts defense. Garrard is not going to put up 30 point fantasy games for you but he most likely will not put us 3 point fantasy games either.

Trent Edwards, Buffalo: He looks poised for a jump this year and he has a big time playmaker in T.O. If you need a solid Backup QB…he is it.

Hail Marys
A.J.Feeley, Carolina: Feeley signed Monday with the Panthers and with Jake Delhomme turning the ball over 12 times in his last 2 games, his days may be numbered as a starter. Carolina has one of the best receivers in the game and a spectacular running game. Feeley had some success in his previous stops and realistically, all he has to do is get the ball to Steve Smith to have fantasy relevance.

Running Backs
Head Smackers
Cedric Benson, Cincinnati: Benson, despite his moderate success last season, had a lot of people not believing he could hold it together as a starting running back in the NFL. However, it appears that getting cut by the bears taught him a much needed lesson and it appears that Ced-Ben is going to be a big part of the Bengal offense. It also doesn’t hurt that Carson Palmer is back force the safeties to play the passing game honest and not stack the box.

Not So Obvious
Fred Taylor, New England: Fragile Fred has been healthy for a number of seasons now and had apparently played himself into the starting job in New England. Taylor when healthy and being fed the rock is a fantasy force…He just scored a touchdown as I am writing this, I am so good.

Carnell Williams, Tampa Bay: If you had followed our “Ask the Experts” contributions on FantasyIndex.com you would have drafted Cadillac, we have been talking about him for months!!!!! But if not, he is now first on the DC and rushed for almost 100yds and a TD yesterday…I am just saying.

Hail Marys
Samkon Gado, St. Louis: The Rams are leaning heavily on Steven Jackson and with Jackon’s history of injuries, it is only a matter of time before he is out for a period of time. Add to that the fact the Gado looked ridiculous in the preseason and this guy has a chance to make an impact.
Chris Brown, Houston: Brown had success in a relief role for the Titans. He looks like he is heathy again and is getting a bigger role than expected with the Texans.

WRs
Head Smackers
Hines Ward, Pittsburgh: With the emergence on Santonio Holmes as the WR1 last season, people have kind of cooled on Hines Ward, but make no mistake Ward is still the go to guy in a pinch. Ward is a warrior too which means he will not miss games and he will be looked for in the red zone…. all good things.

Justin Gage, Tennessee: Gage had double digit “thrown tos” against the Steelers on Thursday. He appears to be the go to guy for the Titans

Devin Hester, Chicago: Jay Cutler may not have looked great on Sunday but he will get it together and Hester is his play maker.

Not So Obvious
Nate Burleson, Seattle: I know the this is the second Seahawk I have mentioned and I know they were playing the Rams, but Burleson was the man before TJ got there and he was very involved on Sunday too. Plus, the Seahawks throw a lot.

Steve Smith, New York Giants: Smith did not catch the TD on Sunday but he did catch 6 balls and looks like the primary target for the junior Manning. Unless someone really steps up this season, Smith should stay consistent.

Hail Marys
Laurent Robinson, St Louis: I know this sounds silly, but the Rams will score a few points this season once they buy into the Spagnola system. Robinson look strong on Sunday even if the Rams didn’t.

Chansi Stuckey, New York Jets: Stuckey started last season with a couple of TDs while playing with Brett Favre. On Sunday, he looked to have good Chemistry with a surprisingly poised Mark Sanchez.

Pretzel’s Picks Week 1

Minnesota Vikings by 4 at the Cleveland Browns

With all of the weapons on the Vikings offense and their top 5 defence I don’t see how Cleveland has a chance. Cleveland has the opposite situation so I look for Minnesota to take this one by 10 at least.

NY Giants by 6.5 over Washington Redskins

This game is going to be a tough, grind it out defensive battle. I look for New York to just get by Redskins in a hard fought division tilt.  Giants by a field goal over Washington.

New England Patriots by 11 over the Buffalo Bills

The Bills looked terrible in the preseason, so bad in fact they fired their offensive coordinator.  In Brady’s first game back since this time last year I look for Belichick to send a message that he is back and fully ready to perform.  Patriots are going to run it up at home.  New England by 2 touchdowns over Buffalo.

Philadelphia Eagles by 2.5 At Carolina Panthers

In my upset pick of the week, I look for the Panthers to run all over the Eagles.  DeAngelo Williams will show us that last year was not a fluke.  Carolina Panthers by a touchdown at home over the Philadelphia Eagles.

Game Time!! Intriguing Stories for the ’09 Season

The day is upon us. All of the work, all of the research, it is all behind us now. Time to settle in an see if we are as good as we think. Every season there are a few stories that we cannot wait to see how they play out. This season is no different.

In the NFL the quarterback is unquestionably the player with the most impact, both positively and negatively. There are some QB stories unfolding that have great drama written all over them.

Brady Quinn over Derek Anderson: Coach Eric Mangini has finally made his decision, Brady Quinn is his guy. This dilemma has been brewing since Anderson went to the pro-bowl the same season the Browns drafted Quinn in the first round. When you draft a QB in round 1 there is always pressure to get him in the game. There is money tied up in him, people have there careers wrapped up in that pick, eventually you have to put him on the field or trade him. This is his year. Will he prove to be the next Bernie Kosar? or Tim Couch?

Two Rookie quarterbacks starting again this year: Last year, the highly touted Matt Ryan out of BC and the little known Joe Flacco out of Delaware, took to the field immediately out of college and took their respective teams to the playoffs. Flacco even became the first rookie Quarterback to win a playoff game. This year, the 0-16 Detroit Lions and Favre-less New York Jets are hoping that history can be repeated. Both the Lions and the Jets drafted QBs in the first half of the first round and have hung their hopes and careers on the new face of the franchise. Matthew Stafford was taken by the Lions with the first overall pick. He has all the tools to be a big time playmaker in the NFL, huge arm, great vision, patience and from all accounts, the right attitude. Remember though, for every Matt Ryan, there are 5 Akili Smiths. The Big difference between Stafford and Ryan is that Stafford is leading a team that has a lot of work ahead of it. The Lions were bad in every area of the game last season, when Matt Ryan took the reigns in Atlanta, the Falcons we not nearly as far from greatness as a team as the Lions are. This does not mean that Stafford will not have success in the NFL. Peyton Manning and Troy Aikman both led really bad teams as rookies and both will be in Canton eventually. Mark Sanchez appears to have a much more likely chance of first year success. He is joining a Jets team that went 9-7 last year and has a fantastic offensive line, running game and defense. If you are looking for a fantasy football longshot, go with Sanchez.

Gray Beard Ressurgence: Last season both Kurt Warner and Kerry Collins had amazing comeback seasons. Warner lead a high flying Arizona offense to the superbowl. In the process he looked like the Kurt Warner of 2002 rewarding many fantasy football owners with a MVP type season that people dream about. He had 3 one thousand yard receivers, I mean seriously! Kerry Collins did not have the same statistical year that Warner had but he did play very efficiently down the stretch leading the Titans to the best record in football and recapturing a seat at the capable QB2 table in the world of fantasy. The question is, can they do it again??? Arizona had a dream season and the Titans made a respectable run as well, but in football years, both Warner and Collins are so old they fart dust!! Can they hold up? We will see. Neither of them can move real well and they don’t take hits like they once did.

JaMarcus Russell’s time has come: Need I say more? Russell was Matthew Stafford before Stafford was Stafford. Huge arm, big, strong, great college career, drafted first overall. The difference is that Russell decide to hold out for most of his rookie year, setting him back 2 football years. When he finally did join the team, it took him forever to learn the offense and catch up to the speed of the NFL. He did show some flashes of brilliance at the end of last season but they were only flashes. This year he has a new coach and a new toy in Darrius Heyward-Bey. It is his time to show the world if he is John Elway or Ryan Leaf.