NFL Draft 2009- Fantasy Impact – Part I

Every year the draft comes and goes and it is still a complete mystery as to how most of the picks will affect your fantasy football team. Let’s take a look shall we….

1) Matthew Stafford QB, Detroit Lions- If the Lions were smart which we know they are not, they would have taken Jason Smith and solidified the left side of their O-line for the next 10 years, giving them the most important piece of the rebuilding process. Since they are not smart, they chose Stafford, a underclassman quarterback who was not viewed as a bluechip prospect until everyone realized that he was the best QB available this year. This sounds very reminiscent of Alex Smith. Now if the Lions are smart (which they are not) they will sit Stafford for a season so that he can learn the system and take in the speed of the game and get used to the constant spotlight that is the NFL. Since they are not smart, they will start him within the first 3 games of the season and allow the angst filled perennially disappointed Lions fans tear into him for a couple of seasons until he either shows he is a star or gets chewed up and spit out like Joey Harrington. Fantasy impact should be none, but it will end up detrimentally affecting Calvin Johnson.

2) Jason Smith OT, St. Louis Rams- The Rams filled the hole left by the release of All World LT Orlando Pace by drafting what might be the best LT prospect since….Orlando Pace. The big difference between Pace and Jason Smith is that Smith is a much better run blocker that Pace was at his age and Smith will also hold up for more than 5 games a season without his knees and ankles breaking down. Look for both Steven Jackson and Mark Bulger (or whomever ends up under center) to really like the new kid on the block. With a healthy stud left tackle and a new smash mouth center in the mix, Jackson should return to 1200+ yards and 15 TDs next season.

3) Tyson Jackson DE, Kansas City Chiefs- The Chiefs Defense showed some signs of life last year and with a new speed rusher on the end, they should increase their sack totals and decrease their points against. This pick will still not make them an elite Defensive team.

4) Aaron Curry LB, Seattle- Curry is probably the most complete player in the draft. His presence will have no effect on Seattle’s fantasy productions.

5) Mark Sanchez QB, New York Jets- Unlike the Lions, the Jets are in a position with their offense where the missing piece is a QB and with the protection of Faneca, Ferguson and the crew, Sanchez might actually be in a situation to have some success. That being said, he is not worth even a flyer in your fantasy draft. The jets defense is not good enough to carry this team so the offense will be looked to if this team wants to win and Sanchez, being another underclassman will not be ready for that task. Truthfully, Sanchez only has one year as a starter so I really have no idea if he will ever affect your fantasy team.

6) Andre Smith OT, Cincinnati Bengals- In a normal situation this would be a great pick that would really help Carson Palmer (or his doppleganger brother) and Cedric Benson or whoever is toting the rock for the bungles. This is the Bengals though, so he will probably hold out and then get in trouble with the law by the end of May. Fantasy impact, Nil.

7) Darrius Heyward-Bey WR, Oakland Raiders – Al Davis pulls another genius move by passing up the best wide receiver in the draft and one of the best in the league in Michael Crabtree based on a 40 time. Hey Al, speed is important but not the only criteria.

Eugene Monroe OT, Jacksonville Jaguars – David Garrard now has one of the best offensive tackle prospects to come out of college in recent years protecting his blindside meaning good things for the Jaguars passing games. MJD gets a moose to blow holes open for him for years to come. Look to upgrade all of your Jacksonville offensive players with a solidified line.

9) B.J. Raji DT, Green Bay Packers – With the Packers switching to the 3-4 defense they needed a dominating nose tackle, they got it. Fantasy impact of adding this player will depend on how everyone else on the team adapts to the change in scheme.

10) Michael Crabtree WR, San Francisco – San Francisco gets the biggest playmaker in the draft. After losing Bryant Johnson and Isaac Bruce the 49ers needed weapons and the got one. Some how they managed to get the consensus best receiver in the draft as the second receiver taken. Thank you Al Davis and your need for speed.

11) Aaron Maybin DE, Buffalo Bills – With a first round offensive tackle still out there the logical pick would be to take him to replace the recently traded Jason Peters. The Bills went away from conventional wisdom and grab a guy that fills a different needed position. Although not necessarily the way most teams would have gone Buffalo gets a guy that can step and start from day one and be a dominating pass rushing defensive end for years to come and should have an immediate impact on the Bills defense.

12) Knowshon Moreno RB, Denver Broncos – With one of the worst defenses in the league last year, signing a slew of running backs in the offseason and trading their Pro Bowl QB away Denver is most certainly going defense or quarterback with this pick… WHAT?!?!? A running back?!?!?!? Well we all know how Mike Shanahan likes his RBs… Oh he is not there anymore, well then, Who the hell knows? Looks like even with Shanahan out of there the Broncos RB situation will never be settled.

13) Brian Orakpo DE, Washington Redskins – The Skins get a edge rusher to compliment their big free agent signing Albert Haynesworth. Look for Orakpo to light it up in his rookie season and push for Defensive ROY based strictly on being in a situation where the guy beside him will occupy most of the offensive linemen trying to block him.

14) Malcom Jenkins CB, New Orleans Saints – New Orleans get some much needed help in the secondary by grabbing the top corner back in the draft. The fantasy impact here will be minimal as for the most part rookie CB don’t stand out but look for him to bay dividends down the road.

15) Brian Crushing LB, Houston Texans – The Texans get one of the best linebackers in the draft as they continue solidify their front 7 on that defense. Don’t look for too much from a fantasy prospective but a great pick for the team.

16) Larry English DE, San Diego Chargers – The Chargers add a pass rushing defensive end to help as Shawne Merriman recovers from injury. The Chargers have 3 legitimate threats to sack the opposing QBs which should get their Sck total back to where it was a couple of years ago. Fantasy impact will be minimal.

Tony Gonzalez traded to the Atlanta Falcons – Fantasy Football Impact

Tony Gonzalez was traded to the Atlanta Falcons for a second round pick in 2010.  You don’t see a lot of trades this close to draft time involving just one pick for next year, so there must not have been too many teams chomping at the bit to get an aging 10 time pro bowl, future Hall of Fame tight end on their team.

I see in no way how this can possibly hurt Tony Gonzalez’s or Matt Ryan’s fantasy values.  Gonzalez goes to a team that surprisingly made the playoffs last year and has a young stud QB in the making that just needs more targets around him, there are only so many people Roddy White can beat.  Look for Gonzalez to get most of the end zone looks in passing situations and be the just the sure handed outlet that Matt Ryan needs in his second year to continue to develop and avoid the sophmore slump.

Matt Ryan probably benefits the most in this deal.  As mentioned above he gets a sure handed tight end, that can go down the field which will open up things for Roddy White as well making all the targets in Atlanta a little more open.

One beneficiary that might not be so obvious is Michael Turner.  After toting the rock more times then anyone else in the league last year Tony Gonzalez brings much needed help to the passing game, allowing Turner to not have to carry the entire franchise on his back and give his legs a much deserved rest with a lighter work load and bigger holes to run through.

Matt Cassel and Dwayne Bowe take a significant fantasy hit.  With no one else to take the pressure off Dwayne Bowe look for him to take a step backin his development as he is sure to be facing double teams all season long.  That leaves Matt Cassel looking for options and he will soon find he has none.  With no running game to speak of, as Larry Johnson is a shell of his former self, it is going to be a long season for Cassel and is sure to look like a one year wonder.

Torry Holt Signs with the Jaguars

One of the big outstanding questions of this offseason is who will shell out the money that Torry Holt is looking for…answer, Jacksonville.

Until Last Season Holt was one of the most consistent receivers in the history of the game. 1200 yards, 9 touchdowns, regardless of the St Louis Rams record. Last year, that trend was smashed. Holt had his least productive season since pop warner and left many people asking if he was no longer Mr. Dependable.
In Holt’s defense, all pro LT Orlando Pace proved that he can no longer be counted on for more than a couple of games a season and Marc Bulger showed that with conditions anything less than perfect, he is really not a good fantasy football quarterback. So where does that leave Holt and what does it mean for Fantasy Football.

Holt should be the first option for David Garrard. With the departure of the often maligned Matt Jones, and the exit of the best out of the backfield RB in Fred Taylor, Holt should be targeted early and often.
If he stays healthy Holt should climb back into the good graces of Fantasy Football owners everywhere. Look for another 1100+yrds and 9tds.

This will also make David Garrard a viable option as a fantasy Football QB as well. In 2007 Garrard showed flashes of brilliance and rarely makes mistakes. With the steady hands and flawless route running of Torry Holt to depend on, Garrard will make a resurgence as an elite Fantasy Football quarterback.

Eagles Acquire Jason Peters

Usually we don’t get all fired up about the movement of offensive linemen from team to team but this is no usual case. When Tra Thomas left the Eagles for the Jaguars via free agency, there where some huge questions as to the affect this would have on 2 fantasy football studs Brian Westbrook and Donovan McNabb. Left tackle is the one position on the offensive line that can make a break an offensive, especially an offense like the eagles which is set up almost completely by their ability to get the ball to Brian Westbrook. Since Westbrook is a running back, you would think that an interior lineman would affect production more, but Brian Wesbrook is not regular RB. He is as productive receiving the ball as he is running it and the eagles actually consider some of the short swing passes to Westbrook, runs!

This is also big fantasy football news because it removes Jason Peters from the Buffalo Bills O-line. Buffalo has just signed Terrell Owens to fortify their aerial attacks but with the departure of one of the best Left Tackles in the game, Trent Edwards may have to get rid of the ball pretty quickly!!!!

Although the Bills did get a bunch of draft picks in the deal, which will help them long term…..draft picks don’t help fantasy football production.

Look for this to help Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook and the rest of the Eagles receiving core (although I hope you are not planning on the Eagles receivers carrying you to the Promised Land). Also look for this to slow down the Buffalo Bills offense regardless of the Terrell Owens factor.