Pretzel’s Thanksgiving Picks

Tennessee Titans by 11 over the Detroit Lions

Well if the Tennessee Titans were waiting for the right time to lose so they could avoid any hangover they would have wanted to do it with one of their bye weeks to do it.  Great planning on their part as they managed to lose just before their second bye week . . . I know I know this isn’t technically a bye week but they are going up against the town bicycle, the god awful Detroit Lions.  I don’t think if all the Titans players were violently ill that would even help the Lions take this one.  Titans By two touchdowns.

Dallas Cowboys by 12 over the Seattle Seahawks

Well Tony Romo is back and along with him comes the Dallas Cowboys’ “swagger”.  I hate that term but for what it means in the NFL, they have it back.  Terrell Owens is back to his old self, running his mouth about everyone on the team except his ball dropping ass.  But his whining gets him enough targets that he is able to put up Hall of Fame type stats.  Combine that with a decimated Seattle Seahawks team and a coach that seems to be phoning it in for the final year of his contract, Dallas should kill in this one.  Cowboys by 17.

 Philadelphia Eagles by 3 over the Arizona Cardinals

Arizona Cardinals will take this one outright regardless of the spread.  Philadelphia Eagles are a team in turmoil and Kurt Warner has a 71% completion and a 10:1 touchdown ratio against the blitz.  With Jim Johnson known for his blitz packages, Warner, Fitzgerald and Boldin should have a great day.  Arizona by 10.

Chad Pennington

I don’t know.  Maybe it is just me but I am really getting tired of the praising of Chad Pennington that is going on from every NFL commentator and analyst.  Are the Dolphins better this year, for sure, no question.  To be fair they were 1-15 last season so being better isn’t that big of a step but they are way better and over 500.  This has most, if not all, analyst on their knees handing over the crown to Chad Pennington.  Here is Pennington’s stat line:

201/300 – 67%

2374 yards

8TD 5INT

92.8 rating

These are not the stats of a superhero as everyone is making him out to be.  This is a game manager.  These are not the stats of a guy who will win the game for you, they are from a guy who probably won’t lose it for you.  Know who also fits in the category???  Kyle Orton!!!!!!!!  Nobody is talking about what a great QB he is.  Most are actually saying Chicago has a QB issue.  Now Orton does not have as many yards as Pennington but he has more touchdowns and less interceptions. 

I have another stat that may put thing in perspective.  Ronnie Brown has more rushing touchdowns then Chad Pennington has total touchdowns, and Brown is certainly not looking to break any records.  So a running back that is splitting carries has more touchdowns then a QB taking all the snaps.

I am not saying that better QB play isn’t contributing to the improvement of the Dolphins I just think crowning him as king is wrong.  So why are they better?  Well it probably starts with the defense being ranked 14th instead of 23rd like they were last year.  A pass rusher leading the league in sacks.  When you combine that with innovative play calling, keeping your 2 best offensive players (Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams) on the field most of the time and finding new ways to get it into their hands it adds up to a much better team.

So please commentators and analyst please take the rose colored glasses off and actually look at the stats, you will see that Pennington is an average quarterback at best with a better coaching staff and team around him then was there last year.

Pretzel’s Picks Week 11

Atlanta Falcons by 6.5 over the Denver Broncos

Denver beat a Cleveland team last week that had the spark of a new quarterback and I expect them to continue their winning ways this week.  Denver takes this one by a field goal with Jay Cutler having another strong game.

Miami Dolphins by 10 over the Oakland Raiders

Last week Oakland had 4 picks against the Carolina Panthers and still couldn’t come up with the win.  They won’t have that success against an efficient Chad Pennington and I look for the wildcat offense of the Dolphins to cause the Raiders fits.  Miami Dolphins by 2 touchdowns at home over the Oakland Raiders.

N.Y. Giants by 7 over the Baltimore Ravens

The N.Y. Giants have the #1 rushing attack in the NFL at 168.9 yards per game.  The Baltimore Ravens have the #1 rushing defense in the league.  Strength versus strength in this one and I think the Giants will continue to dominate as they have most of the season.  Giants by two touchdowns.

Indianapolis Colts by 8 over the Houston Texans

Indianapolis continue there winning ways at home against a struggling Houston Texans team.  Indy will take this one by a touchdown but I 8 points might be a stretch.

Tennessee Titans By 3 over the Jacksonville Jaguars

Tennessee go into Jacksonville 9-0 and will leave 10-0.  Titans by a touchdown.

Green Bay Packers by 3.5 over the Chicago Bears

Aaron Rodgers got to practice this week which will help his timing with Greg Jennings and Donald Driver.  The Packers will take a tough divisional game by a touchdown at home.

Philadelphia Eagles by 9 over the Cincinnati Bengals

This one seems like a bit of a trap game to me.  The Cincinnati Bengals are coming off a bye week after their first win of the year.  The Bengals will keep this one close at home but The Eagles still take this one.  Eagles by no more the a touchdown.

New Orleans Saints by 5.5 over the Kansas City Chiefs

After 3 strong games in a row by Tyler Thigpen he should continue to flourish in Herm Edwards’ adapted offense and take a close one in a shootout over the high powered Saints.

Carolina Panthers by 14 over the Detroit Lions

The Detroit Lions are 0-9 and I predict will finish the season 0-16.  They certainly will not beat the Panthers on the road.  Carolina are just better then the Lions in all aspects of the game, but the Lions will keep it closer then expected.  Carolina Panthers by 10 over the Detroit Lions.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 4 over Minnesota Vikings

This should be a very good game.  The Minnesota Vikings are coming off a big win last week at home against the Green Bay Packers.  The Tampa Bay Buccaneers seem to find a way to win, against good teams or bad teams they seem to win by a field goal every week.  So I will call this for the Bucs by a field goal.

 San Francisco 49ers by 6.5 over the St. Louis Rams

Let’s face it, the St. Louis Rams are awful.  They were not good for Scott Linehan and they seems to be worse now for Jim Haslett.  They lost 47-3 last week to the N.Y. Jets.  No the 49ers are certainly not the Jets but they should destroy the Rams just the same.  Mike Singletary gets his first win this week and does it by 2 touchdowns.

Arizona Cardinals by 3 over the Seattle Seahawks

This game is in Seattle which has the “12th Man”. . . Matt Hasselbeck is back this week . . . who cares?  High octane Cardinals by 10 over the Cardinals.

Pittsburgh Steelersby 5 over the San Diego Chargers

The Chargers have looked terrible this season and their running game is almost nonexistent.  Don’t look for that to change this week against the league’s best defense.  Steelers by a touchdown.

Dallas Cowboys by 1 over the Washington Redskins

How are the Cowboys favored in this one on the road?  Has anyone watched the last few games?  Romo isn’t going to make that big of a difference, there are other issues in Big D.  Redskins by a TD.

Buffalo Bills by 5 over the Cleveland Browns

Brady Quinn looked good last week against the terrible Broncos defense.  Look for some extra jitters this week on the big Monday Night Football stage.  Combine that with nobody on the Browns being able catch a cold, this one will be character building for the young general.  Bills by a touchdown.

Pretzel’s Picks NYJ@NE Nov 13/08

Wow this should be a great game.  The spread is New England by 3 over New York.  These teams are tied at 6-3 for top spot in the AFC East division.  The New England Patriot defense took a huge hit last week with Adalius Thomas breaking his forearm putting him out for the season.  I look for Brett Favre to have a little more time in the pocket this week then we would have expected, but if anyone can have people go down and be able to replace them without missing a beat it is Bill Belichick, so don’t expect that Favre will have all day back there.  Eric Mangini is trying to keep him under control but  I still look for Favre to  put some jump balls up and the Patriots defense to take advantage.  Thomas Jones was a monster last week against a weak Rams defense but I wouldn’t look for the same against the 12th ranked rush defense.  He will still get his yards and probably a TD but not 3 again.  This game should come down to the wire and I think the New England Patriots will take this one by 5 at home against the New York Jets in a tough divisional match up where the winner takes first place.